CAJ | 학술논문

跨区域水电项目群工程量大、环境复杂、风险事故极易发生. 而现有的水电项目群风险评价方法在处理随机性、模糊性和评价主体主观性等方面存在不足,为此,提出了基于云模型改进的跨区域水电项目群风险多级模糊综合评价方法. 首先,系统分析了风险因素,并构建了多级模糊评价指标体系;其次,利用云模型算法改进的多级模糊评价方法,建立风险评语集云模型、风险因子权重云模型、隶属度云模型以及综合评价结果云模型;最后,用所建模型对某水电站左右岸泄洪和放空建筑物工程项目风险进行评价,结果表明该评价方法具有一定的可行性和实用性.
과구역수전항목군공정량대、배경복잡、풍험사고겁역발생. 이현유적수전항목군풍험평개방법재처리수궤성、모호성화평개주체주관성등방면존재불족,위차,제출료기우운모형개진적과구역수전항목군풍험다급모호종합평개방법. 수선,계통분석료풍험인소,병구건료다급모호평개지표체계;기차,이용운모형산법개진적다급모호평개방법,건립풍험평어집운모형、풍험인자권중운모형、대속도운모형이급종합평개결과운모형;최후,용소건모형대모수전참좌우안설홍화방공건축물공정항목풍험진행평개,결과표명해평개방법구유일정적가행성화실용성.
The inter -regional hydropower project is characterized as large engineering quantity, complex environment and prone to risk and accident. To overcome the deficiencies of the current risk-assessment methods in hydropower projects such as randomness, fuzziness and subjectivity of evaluation body, we propose the improved multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model on the basis of cloud model to assess the risk of the inter-regional hydropower projects. We analyzed the risk factors sys-tematically and established the multilevel fuzzy evaluation index system, which was improved by the cloud model. The corre-sponding cloud models of remark set, risk factor weight, membership degree and comprehensive evaluation results are construc-ted. The established method was used to assess the risk of the flood discharging projects on both banks of a hydropower station, and the assessing result has some applicability and practical meanings