山东农业科学
山東農業科學
산동농업과학
Shandong Agricultural Sciences
2015年
9期
151-156
,共6页
价格波动%福利效应%滤波法%Minot 模型
價格波動%福利效應%濾波法%Minot 模型
개격파동%복리효응%려파법%Minot 모형
Price fluctuation%Welfare effect%Filtering method%Minot model
本研究对大蒜价格的波动特征进行分析，然后借助 Minot 效应模型来进一步分析大蒜价格波动对主产区的福利效应。得出的主要结论有：主产区短期总福利与长期总福利具有相同的变化方向，大蒜价格变动对短期、长期消费福利都产生负向影响，对短期、长期生产福利都产生正向影响；短期内，主产区总福利变动主要由 CR 和 PR 值决定，长期内，主产区总福利还取决于大蒜需求价格弹性和供给价格弹性；长期总福利优于短期总福利，但优势并不明显。
本研究對大蒜價格的波動特徵進行分析，然後藉助 Minot 效應模型來進一步分析大蒜價格波動對主產區的福利效應。得齣的主要結論有：主產區短期總福利與長期總福利具有相同的變化方嚮，大蒜價格變動對短期、長期消費福利都產生負嚮影響，對短期、長期生產福利都產生正嚮影響；短期內，主產區總福利變動主要由 CR 和 PR 值決定，長期內，主產區總福利還取決于大蒜需求價格彈性和供給價格彈性；長期總福利優于短期總福利，但優勢併不明顯。
본연구대대산개격적파동특정진행분석，연후차조 Minot 효응모형래진일보분석대산개격파동대주산구적복리효응。득출적주요결론유：주산구단기총복리여장기총복리구유상동적변화방향，대산개격변동대단기、장기소비복리도산생부향영향，대단기、장기생산복리도산생정향영향；단기내，주산구총복리변동주요유 CR 화 PR 치결정，장기내，주산구총복리환취결우대산수구개격탄성화공급개격탄성；장기총복리우우단기총복리，단우세병불명현。
The characteristics of garlic price fluctuation were studied firstly in this paper,and then its wel-fare effects in main production area were analyzed with Minot model.The results showed that the changing direc-tion of total short -term and long -term welfare in main production areas was the same;the garlic price fluctua-tion had negative impacts on the welfare of short -term and long -term consumption,but had positive impacts on the welfare of short -term and long -term production.In a short term,the change of total welfare in the main production areas was mainly determined by the value of CR and PR,while in a long term,it was affected by demand price elasticity and supply price elasticity as well.The total welfare in a long term was better than that in a short term,but this advantage was not obvious.
