CAJ | 학술논문

得益于能源需求的规模性和稳定性，工业分布式能源系统是国外分布式能源应用的主流领域，在我国也已引起广泛关注。为了支撑工业分布式能源系统的合理规划与健康发展，工业热、电负荷的准确预测和评估至关重要。基于对我国能源统计年鉴数据的调研、评估，并通过与能耗统计较为细致、全面的日本在同类行业相关数据的对比分析，确立了各行业年总热、电消费指标值。在此基础上，考虑到分布式热电联产系统规划、设计的特定需求，提出了年总能源负荷的逐月、逐时分摊方法。
득익우능원수구적규모성화은정성，공업분포식능원계통시국외분포식능원응용적주류영역，재아국야이인기엄범관주。위료지탱공업분포식능원계통적합리규화여건강발전，공업열、전부하적준학예측화평고지관중요。기우대아국능원통계년감수거적조연、평고，병통과여능모통계교위세치、전면적일본재동류행업상관수거적대비분석，학립료각행업년총열、전소비지표치。재차기출상，고필도분포식열전련산계통규화、설계적특정수구，제출료년총능원부하적축월、축시분탄방법。
Industrial distributed energy system is mainstream area of international distributed energy application and it has caused wide concern in domestic market due to energy demand scale and stability. In order to support rational planning and healthy development of industrial distributed energy system, accurate prediction and evaluation of industrial heating load and electric power load is essesntial. Based on survey and evaluation of domestic energy statistics yearbook, through detailed and comprehensive samples comparative analysis in the same industry relevant date compared with energy statistics, it builds up annual heating consumption index and electric power consumption index in all kinds of industries. On the basis of this, considering specific requirements of distributed combined heating and power generation system planning and design, it puts forward annual total energy load allocation to monthly and hourly method.