中国防汛抗旱
中國防汛抗旱
중국방신항한
China Flood & Drought Management
2015年
4期
25-32
,共8页
内涝预警%评价指标%DPSIR模型%模糊综合评判法%分布式城市内涝预报模型
內澇預警%評價指標%DPSIR模型%模糊綜閤評判法%分佈式城市內澇預報模型
내로예경%평개지표%DPSIR모형%모호종합평판법%분포식성시내로예보모형
urban flood warning%evaluation index%DPSIR Model%fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method%distributed urban flood forecasting model
近年来,我国城市内涝洪水的频度和烈度呈现逐年加剧的趋势,在难以进行高标准防洪工程措施建设的情况下,开展城市内涝预警及应急管理显得尤为重要.以珠江三角洲地区的代表性城市东莞市为例,以DPSIR模型(driving forces、pressure、state、impact、responses)为理论基础,提出了城市内涝预警评价的综合指标体系,采用模糊综合评判法对预警等级进行评价,以多普勒雷达估算的高分辨率降雨为输入,以基于分布式城市内涝预报模型预报的城市内涝水深作为评价指标,实现了城市内涝预警的精细化和综合化.本文的评价方法既可根据当前实测的指标体系开展预警评价,也可通过预报指标开展预警评价,提高预警的预见期.对东莞市近年来发生的两场最为严重的内涝的模拟预警评价结果表明,该方法效果良好,可应用于实际工作.
近年來,我國城市內澇洪水的頻度和烈度呈現逐年加劇的趨勢,在難以進行高標準防洪工程措施建設的情況下,開展城市內澇預警及應急管理顯得尤為重要.以珠江三角洲地區的代錶性城市東莞市為例,以DPSIR模型(driving forces、pressure、state、impact、responses)為理論基礎,提齣瞭城市內澇預警評價的綜閤指標體繫,採用模糊綜閤評判法對預警等級進行評價,以多普勒雷達估算的高分辨率降雨為輸入,以基于分佈式城市內澇預報模型預報的城市內澇水深作為評價指標,實現瞭城市內澇預警的精細化和綜閤化.本文的評價方法既可根據噹前實測的指標體繫開展預警評價,也可通過預報指標開展預警評價,提高預警的預見期.對東莞市近年來髮生的兩場最為嚴重的內澇的模擬預警評價結果錶明,該方法效果良好,可應用于實際工作.
근년래,아국성시내로홍수적빈도화열도정현축년가극적추세,재난이진행고표준방홍공정조시건설적정황하,개전성시내로예경급응급관리현득우위중요.이주강삼각주지구적대표성성시동완시위례,이DPSIR모형(driving forces、pressure、state、impact、responses)위이론기출,제출료성시내로예경평개적종합지표체계,채용모호종합평판법대예경등급진행평개,이다보륵뢰체고산적고분변솔강우위수입,이기우분포식성시내로예보모형예보적성시내로수심작위평개지표,실현료성시내로예경적정세화화종합화.본문적평개방법기가근거당전실측적지표체계개전예경평개,야가통과예보지표개전예경평개,제고예경적예견기.대동완시근년래발생적량장최위엄중적내로적모의예경평개결과표명,해방법효과량호,가응용우실제공작.
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of urban flooding in China are in an increasing trend, urban flood warning and emergency management are particularly important in that it is difficult to build high standard engineering measures. In this paper urban flood in Dongguan City was studied as the typical city of Pearl River Delta Area. Based on the theory of DPSIR model, this paper presents an urban flood evaluation index and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for urban flood warning. Having the Dorple radar based precipitation estimation as the input, taking the inundation water depth as the evaluation index derived from the distributed urban flood forecasting model, this method fulfilled the high resolution and comprehension in urban flood forecasting. The method can evaluate the warning index both in currently observed and forecasted evaluation index, and increasing the forecasting lead-time. To evaluate two flood events occurred in recent years using this method, the results prove that the method is reasonable and could be applied to real-time operation.
