CAJ | 학술논문

大学生的就业信心指数的变化趋势，可作为高校制定学生工作计划、应对当前就业形势压力的参考依据，信心指数预测结果的准确性直接关系到政策制定与实施的效果。在分析自回归、神经网络及灰色系统等单预测模型的优点与不足基础上，提出综合利用各单模型预测信息的组合预测思路，构建基于遗传算法和信息熵求解单模型权重的组合预测模型。预测结果显示，组合预测模型在拟合期的表现与神经网络模型接近，优于其它两种模型；在预测期远超过其它模型的预测效果。组合预测模型的拟合性能和泛化性能优越，预测信息可作为高校制定相关政策时的重要参考依据。
대학생적취업신심지수적변화추세，가작위고교제정학생공작계화、응대당전취업형세압력적삼고의거，신심지수예측결과적준학성직접관계도정책제정여실시적효과。재분석자회귀、신경망락급회색계통등단예측모형적우점여불족기출상，제출종합이용각단모형예측신식적조합예측사로，구건기우유전산법화신식적구해단모형권중적조합예측모형。예측결과현시，조합예측모형재의합기적표현여신경망락모형접근，우우기타량충모형；재예측기원초과기타모형적예측효과。조합예측모형적의합성능화범화성능우월，예측신식가작위고교제정상관정책시적중요삼고의거。
Employment confidence index of college student (ECI) can be used as a reference to assist the university administrators to formulate work plans and cope with the current employment situation. So, the most accurate forecasting results are needed, which is directly related to the effect of policy formulation and implementation. In order to solve this problem, the advantages and disadvantages of the model of threshold auto-regression (TAR), back propagation (BP) and gray model were analyzed. According to analysis result, we propose a combined forecast model based on the genetic algorithm (CF-GA), in which GA is used to determinate the weight of each single model. The forecast results show that the performance of CF-GA has a good behavior to other three models, which can be used as an important reference for the university development of relevant policies.