CAJ | 학술논문

2015年全国两会期间，北京市提出了新的人口调控目标，到2020年要将人口总量控制在2300万人。实现北京市新的人口调控目标，必须站在京津冀协同发展的高度，加快疏解非首都功能，以产业疏解带动人口疏解，最终实现三地产业、人口的合理布局。本文依据统计局最新的2012年北京市投入产出价值表，编制了19部门完全劳动消耗表，提出了劳动影响力、活劳动转化系数的概念，并具体给出了某一产业是如何影响其他产业就业量的计算公式。利用完全劳动消耗表所反映的各产业间的劳动消耗关系，结合各产业的具体特点，提出了直接转移、转移上游、限制需求、转移环节四条疏解办法。并进一步定量测算了产业疏解后对本部门和关联部门就业人口的影响程度，模型结果显示，批发零售业和制造业是直接转移的最重要抓手，转移北京市批发零售业10%总产值，直接就业和关联就业将分别下降19.8、4.1万人就业，最终减少23.9万就业人口；转移制造业10%总产值，直接就业和关联就业将分别下降14万、8.2万人，最终减少22.2万就业人口。
2015년전국량회기간，북경시제출료신적인구조공목표，도2020년요장인구총량공제재2300만인。실현북경시신적인구조공목표，필수참재경진기협동발전적고도，가쾌소해비수도공능，이산업소해대동인구소해，최종실현삼지산업、인구적합리포국。본문의거통계국최신적2012년북경시투입산출개치표，편제료19부문완전노동소모표，제출료노동영향력、활노동전화계수적개념，병구체급출료모일산업시여하영향기타산업취업량적계산공식。이용완전노동소모표소반영적각산업간적노동소모관계，결합각산업적구체특점，제출료직접전이、전이상유、한제수구、전이배절사조소해판법。병진일보정량측산료산업소해후대본부문화관련부문취업인구적영향정도，모형결과현시，비발령수업화제조업시직접전이적최중요조수，전이북경시비발령수업10%총산치，직접취업화관련취업장분별하강19.8、4.1만인취업，최종감소23.9만취업인구；전이제조업10%총산치，직접취업화관련취업장분별하강14만、8.2만인，최종감소22.2만취업인구。
During the 2015 national NPC and CPPCC, Beijing proposed a new goals to control total population less than 23 million by 2020. To realize the new target, it is necessary to strengthen Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-coordinated development and ease Beijing’s non-capital function. We establish a labor input-output table in 19 sectors in Beijing in 2012 put forward the formula of labor influence coefficient, conversion factor of direct labor and a formula on how one industry affects employment of other industries. Based on the relationship reflected by the labor input-output table, we propose four paths of industrial transfer, direct transfer, upstream transfer, limit of final demand and process transfer. By input-output calcalation, we find that manufacturing, wholesale and retail are the key sectors to distribute population. When reduce 10% of total input of wholesale and retail,there will be 198 thousand direct employment cutting and 41 thousand indirect employment cutting. And when reduce 10% of total input of manufacturing, there will be a 140 thousand direct employment cutting and 82 thousand indirect employment cutting.