CAJ | 학술논문

油气资源城市是我国资源型城市的重要组成部分，其高速、稳定的发展对我国全面建成小康社会起着至关重要的作用，开展油气资源城市“资源诅咒”效应研究有助于为其经济发展实践提供科学的理论指导。本文以资源产业依赖度与经济增长的关系为切入点，重新定义“资源诅咒”假说，根据相关文献的回顾评述和历史数据的统计观察，提出油气资源城市“资源诅咒”效应的两个假说，选取1997-2012年10座典型油气资源城市的面板数据作为研究样本，构建经济增长计量模型，并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业依赖度与经济增长之间的直接和间接关系，分析“资源诅咒”的传导机制。研究显示：①在模型整体估计中，资源产业依赖度的参数估计值先正后负，说明我国油气资源城市存在“资源诅咒”效应，资源产业依赖对其经济增长存在先促进后抑制的关联关系，即两者之间存在倒U型曲线关系；②在模型分布估计中，物质资本的投入会影响资源产业依赖度对经济增长参数估计的显著性，而个体与私营经济的发展和较高的对外开放程度会使资源产业依赖的抑制作用变得不显著，说明资源产业依赖度对油气资源城市经济增长的抑制效应是间接的、可弱化的，其中物质资本投资是“资源诅咒”效应产生的主要诱因，而个体与私营经济发展和对外开放程度是规避“资源诅咒”的关键因素。根据研究结果，优化配置油气资源城市物质资本投入、完善城市动态混合所有制结构、合理设定城市对外开放程度是破解油气资源城市“资源诅咒”效应的有效方式。
유기자원성시시아국자원형성시적중요조성부분，기고속、은정적발전대아국전면건성소강사회기착지관중요적작용，개전유기자원성시“자원저주”효응연구유조우위기경제발전실천제공과학적이론지도。본문이자원산업의뢰도여경제증장적관계위절입점，중신정의“자원저주”가설，근거상관문헌적회고평술화역사수거적통계관찰，제출유기자원성시“자원저주”효응적량개가설，선취1997-2012년10좌전형유기자원성시적면판수거작위연구양본，구건경제증장계량모형，병채용다충계량분석화검험방법고찰자원산업의뢰도여경제증장지간적직접화간접관계，분석“자원저주”적전도궤제。연구현시：①재모형정체고계중，자원산업의뢰도적삼수고계치선정후부，설명아국유기자원성시존재“자원저주”효응，자원산업의뢰대기경제증장존재선촉진후억제적관련관계，즉량자지간존재도U형곡선관계；②재모형분포고계중，물질자본적투입회영향자원산업의뢰도대경제증장삼수고계적현저성，이개체여사영경제적발전화교고적대외개방정도회사자원산업의뢰적억제작용변득불현저，설명자원산업의뢰도대유기자원성시경제증장적억제효응시간접적、가약화적，기중물질자본투자시“자원저주”효응산생적주요유인，이개체여사영경제발전화대외개방정도시규피“자원저주”적관건인소。근거연구결과，우화배치유기자원성시물질자본투입、완선성시동태혼합소유제결구、합리설정성시대외개방정도시파해유기자원성시“자원저주”효응적유효방식。
Oil and gas resource-based cities were an important part of China’ s resource-dependent cities, for playing an important role in building a moderately prosperous society with high-speed and stable development in our country. It could provide theoretical guidance for the practice of economic development of oil and gas resource-based cities through the study on “resource curse” effect. With the relationship between the dependence of resource-based industry and the economic growth as the breakthrough point, the paper redefined the“resource curse” hypothesis. Based on the review of related literature and the statistical observation of historical data, the paper put forward two hypotheses of“resource curse" effect in these cities. Then economic growth regression model was built according to the panel data of 10 typical oil and gas resource-based cities during 1997-2012. A variety of econometric analysis and test method were used to study the nonlinear relationship and the mechanism of the formation between the resources industry dependence and the economic growth. The result indicated as follows. Firstly, in the overall estimation, the parameter of the resource-industry dependence was negative after positive. That suggested“resource curse” effect in China’ s oil and gas resource-based cities was bound to exist. The function that the dependence of resource-based industry acted on economic growth was inhibition after promotion, which was an inverted U curve. Secondly, in the distributed estimation, the investment of material capital influenced the parameter of the dependence of resource-based industry, while the dependent inhibition of resource-based industry was weaken by the development of individual and private economy and the openness of oil and gas resource-based cities. It showed the inhibitory effect of the dependence of resource-based industry to economic growth was indirect and could be impaired. The inhibition was induced by the material capital investment, while the development of individual and private economy and the openness of oil and gas resource-based cities were the key factors to avoid it. According to the research, it could be found out the effective way to crack the“resource curse” effect through optimizing the allocation of material capital, improving the structure of Composite-Ownership and setting the openness of these cities reasonably.