CAJ | 학술논문

中国是全球第一大精炼铜消费国。本文结合中国消费历史及趋势,运用社会福利法模型对中国精炼铜储备进行了定量分析,计算得出中国精炼铜的最优储备规模为82.6天消费量,2015年最优储备量为268万 t；通过敏感性分析,确定最优储备规模的主要影响因素是需求价格弹性系数和平均中断规模；结合储备收益最大化函数,分析了不同情景下中国精炼铜最优储备量,认为中国精炼铜的合理储备规模应在75~85天消费量之间,2015年储备量为244万~276万 t之间。
중국시전구제일대정련동소비국。본문결합중국소비역사급추세,운용사회복리법모형대중국정련동저비진행료정량분석,계산득출중국정련동적최우저비규모위82.6천소비량,2015년최우저비량위268만 t；통과민감성분석,학정최우저비규모적주요영향인소시수구개격탄성계수화평균중단규모；결합저비수익최대화함수,분석료불동정경하중국정련동최우저비량,인위중국정련동적합리저비규모응재75~85천소비량지간,2015년저비량위244만~276만 t지간。
China is the largest copper consumption country around the world.Combining with history and trends of China's refined copper industry development,with the help of the model of social welfare, refined copper reserves in China has been carried on the quantitative analysis,the optimal size of China's refined copper reserves calculated for 82.6 days of consumption and 268 million tons in 2015;According to the sensitivity analysis,the main factors that affect the optimal reserves are the coefficient of the elasticity of demand and the size of average interruption;Combining with the reserves utility maximization function, selecting different scenes,obtained under different scenarios eventually China’s refined copper optimal reserves,it is concluded that China’s optimal refined copper reserves should be between 75~ 85 days of consumption,244~276 million tons in 2015.