价值工程
價值工程
개치공정
Value Engineering
2015年
29期
48-51
,共4页
钢铁产业政策调控%固定资产投资%预测%SARIMA模型
鋼鐵產業政策調控%固定資產投資%預測%SARIMA模型
강철산업정책조공%고정자산투자%예측%SARIMA모형
iron and steel policy industry%fixed-asset investment%forecast%SARIMA model
固定资产投资是钢铁行业调控的重要参考指标，是我国控制钢铁行业产能扩张政策实施落实的具体体现。为准确把握我国钢铁行业运行趋势和产业调整情况，本文根据我国黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业固定资产投资月度数据SGT建立SARIMA模型，并对2015年8-12月数据进行预测。结果表明，该模型预测精确度较高，适用于我国钢铁冶炼行业固定资产投资数据的短期预测，可以为产业政策调整和政策实施提供科学的参考依据。
固定資產投資是鋼鐵行業調控的重要參攷指標，是我國控製鋼鐵行業產能擴張政策實施落實的具體體現。為準確把握我國鋼鐵行業運行趨勢和產業調整情況，本文根據我國黑色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業固定資產投資月度數據SGT建立SARIMA模型，併對2015年8-12月數據進行預測。結果錶明，該模型預測精確度較高，適用于我國鋼鐵冶煉行業固定資產投資數據的短期預測，可以為產業政策調整和政策實施提供科學的參攷依據。
고정자산투자시강철행업조공적중요삼고지표，시아국공제강철행업산능확장정책실시락실적구체체현。위준학파악아국강철행업운행추세화산업조정정황，본문근거아국흑색금속야련급압연가공업고정자산투자월도수거SGT건립SARIMA모형，병대2015년8-12월수거진행예측。결과표명，해모형예측정학도교고，괄용우아국강철야련행업고정자산투자수거적단기예측，가이위산업정책조정화정책실시제공과학적삼고의거。
Fixed assets investment is the important reference index of steel industry regulation, and is the concrete embodiment of confining and implement of the capacity expansion policy in the steel industry in China. For accurately grasping the operating trend and industrial adjustment situation of China's steel industry, this paper establishes SARIMA model according to black metal smelting and monthly fixed assets investment SGT of rolling processing industry in China, and forecasts the data that from August to December in 2015. The forecasting results show that the model's prediction accuracy is reasonable, and the SARIMA model is suitable for the short-term forecasting of fixed assets investment of China's iron and steel smelting industry and can provide scientific reference for industrial policy's adjustment and implementation.
