CAJ | 학술논문

随着经济全球化的发展，汇率波动问题越来越成为国内外学者关注的焦点。因此，加强人民币汇率内在机理的深入研究对抑制人民币汇率波动具有重要的理论和实践意义。依据三变量购买力平价模型，选取2005年8月至2014年6月的最新月度数据对人民币兑美元汇率、中国生产者价格指数和美国生产者价格指数进行了协整分析。研究发现：人民币兑美元汇率、中国生产者价格指数和美国生产者价格指数之间存在长期的协整关系和短期动态调整机制。最后，从加快市场改革、稳定物价和完善汇率制度等几个方面为我国宏观政策的制定提出了建议。
수착경제전구화적발전，회솔파동문제월래월성위국내외학자관주적초점。인차，가강인민폐회솔내재궤리적심입연구대억제인민폐회솔파동구유중요적이론화실천의의。의거삼변량구매력평개모형，선취2005년8월지2014년6월적최신월도수거대인민폐태미원회솔、중국생산자개격지수화미국생산자개격지수진행료협정분석。연구발현：인민폐태미원회솔、중국생산자개격지수화미국생산자개격지수지간존재장기적협정관계화단기동태조정궤제。최후，종가쾌시장개혁、은정물개화완선회솔제도등궤개방면위아국굉관정책적제정제출료건의。
The foreign exchange fluctuation has been focused on by more and more scholars with the development of economic globalization.Therefore,it has an important role of reducing the oscillation of RMB exchange rate to increase the study of inner mechanism of foreign exchange rates fluctuation. This paper tested the model of three variables PPP with the method of co-integration based on the month data from the 8th,2005 to the 6th,2014.It turned out that RMB exchange rate,Chinese PPI and American PPI exist long-term co-integration relationship and short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism.At last,advices for macro policy-making from accelerating market reform,firming prices up and improving the system of exchange rate terms and the next direction of research were given.