预测
預測
예측
Forecasting
2015年
5期
34-40
,共7页
农村金融机构%政府干预%支农行为
農村金融機構%政府榦預%支農行為
농촌금융궤구%정부간예%지농행위
rural financial institutions%government intervention%agriculture-supporting behavior
本文通过构建理论模型对政府干预与农村金融机构支农行为的内在作用机制进行了数理分析，结果显示：早期的农村金融市场上，政府干预是必要的；但现有政府干预方式在初期有效，当农村金融市场变得完善和发达时，干预效果不佳；同时现有干预还会诱发农户发生道德风险，无助于缓解农村资金外流现象。这一结论可以对中国农村金融市场上金融机构支农行为演变的历史轨迹做出很好的阐释。最后提出通过调整政府干预方式来引导农村金融机构主动支农，提高支农效率，从根本上解决农民贷款难题的政策建议。
本文通過構建理論模型對政府榦預與農村金融機構支農行為的內在作用機製進行瞭數理分析，結果顯示：早期的農村金融市場上，政府榦預是必要的；但現有政府榦預方式在初期有效，噹農村金融市場變得完善和髮達時，榦預效果不佳；同時現有榦預還會誘髮農戶髮生道德風險，無助于緩解農村資金外流現象。這一結論可以對中國農村金融市場上金融機構支農行為縯變的歷史軌跡做齣很好的闡釋。最後提齣通過調整政府榦預方式來引導農村金融機構主動支農，提高支農效率，從根本上解決農民貸款難題的政策建議。
본문통과구건이론모형대정부간예여농촌금융궤구지농행위적내재작용궤제진행료수리분석，결과현시：조기적농촌금융시장상，정부간예시필요적；단현유정부간예방식재초기유효，당농촌금융시장변득완선화발체시，간예효과불가；동시현유간예환회유발농호발생도덕풍험，무조우완해농촌자금외류현상。저일결론가이대중국농촌금융시장상금융궤구지농행위연변적역사궤적주출흔호적천석。최후제출통과조정정부간예방식래인도농촌금융궤구주동지농，제고지농효솔，종근본상해결농민대관난제적정책건의。
This paper constructs a theoretical model to analyze the internal mechanism of government intervention and institutions’ support agriculture behavior. The main results are as follows:First, government intervention is necessary in the undeveloped rural financial market. Second, the existing way of government intervention is effective in the undevel-oped rural market while ineffective in the developed rural market. Third, the existing way of intervention can’ t help to reduce moral hazard and capital outflows. The conclusions above can make a good interpretation of the historical trajectory of financial institutions’ support agriculture behavior in Chinese rural financial market. Finally, the paper suggests that adjusting government intervention methods will be a useful way to induce financial institutions to support agriculture actively and effectively.
