CAJ | 학술논문

目的探讨南通地区1999至201 1年肝癌病死率和动态变化趋势,为今后制定相应防治措施提供科学依据.方法采用国际死因分类法(ICD-10)和(ICD-9)对死因分类,用x2检验比较肝癌病死率在不同性别、年龄和年份间的差异,建立灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测5年肝癌病死率.结果南通地区1999至2011年肝癌标化病死率呈下降趋势(x 2=57 545.98,P＜0.001),女性标化病死率下降趋势相比于男性较为缓慢;总病死率为53.41/10万,男女性病死率分别为80.81/10万,26.94/10万,男、女间病死率差异有统计学意义(x 2=13625.42,P＜0.001);无论性别,肝癌病死率均随着年龄的增高而呈上升趋势(男性趋势x 2=39 878.8,P＜0.001,女性趋势x 2=20105.3,P＜ 0.001,总趋势x 2=57 545.98,P＜0.001).女性40岁后、男性35岁后肝癌病死率上升明显.灰色模型预测方程为(Y)t=-1256.28e-00375t+1315.5,预测到2016年肝癌病死率将降为25.56/10万.结论南通地区肝癌患者病死率整体呈现下降趋势,肝癌防控工作初见成效,但病死率仍保持较高水平,35岁以上男性患者和40岁以上女性患者是重点防治对象,应采取更为有力措施降低肝癌病死率.
목적 탐토남통지구1999지201 1년간암병사솔화동태변화추세,위금후제정상응방치조시제공과학의거.방법 채용국제사인분류법(ICD-10)화(ICD-9)대사인분류,용x2검험비교간암병사솔재불동성별、년령화년빈간적차이,건립회색계통GM(1,1)모형예측5년간암병사솔.결과 남통지구1999지2011년간암표화병사솔정하강추세(x 2=57 545.98,P＜0.001),녀성표화병사솔하강추세상비우남성교위완만;총병사솔위53.41/10만,남녀성병사솔분별위80.81/10만,26.94/10만,남、녀간병사솔차이유통계학의의(x 2=13625.42,P＜0.001);무론성별,간암병사솔균수착년령적증고이정상승추세(남성추세x 2=39 878.8,P＜0.001,녀성추세x 2=20105.3,P＜ 0.001,총추세x 2=57 545.98,P＜0.001).녀성40세후、남성35세후간암병사솔상승명현.회색모형예측방정위(Y)t=-1256.28e-00375t+1315.5,예측도2016년간암병사솔장강위25.56/10만.결론 남통지구간암환자병사솔정체정현하강추세,간암방공공작초견성효,단병사솔잉보지교고수평,35세이상남성환자화40세이상녀성환자시중점방치대상,응채취경위유력조시강저간암병사솔.
Objective To investigate the mortality rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Nantong,China from 1999 to 2011,in order to uncover dynamic trends and provide reasoned advice on intervention strategies to decrease HCC incidence and mortality in Nantong in the future.Methods Versions 10 and 9 of the WHO International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10 and ICD-9) were used to determine the number of HCC deaths in Nantong,China for the study's range of years.Thex2 test was applied to compare the HCC mortality rates according to sex and age.The Grey system GM(1,1) model was used to predict the next-5-year HCC mortality for Nantong.Results Analysis of the standardized mortality in Nantong showed a slight decreasing trend from 1999 to 2011 (x2 =57 545.98,P ＜ 0.001),with males showing a steeper decrease than females.The total mortality of HCC during these years was 53.41 per 100,000 people,with mortality among males being significantly higher than that among females (80.81 per 100,000 people vs.26.94 per 100,000 people;x2 =13 625.42,P ＜ 0.001).In general,HCC mortality increased with increase in age (general trend:x2 =57 545.98,P ＜ 0.001;male trend:x2 =39 878.8,P ＜ 0.001;female trend:x2 =20 105.3,P ＜ 0.001).However,HCC mortality increased significantly in women after the age of 40 and in men after the age of 35.The GM(1,1) equation was:Yt=-1265.28e-0.0375t+ 1315.5,which predicted that the HCC mortality will decrease to 25.56 per 100,000 people in 2016.Conclusion Although HCC mortality generally decreased from 1999 to 2011,the rate remained high.Public health intervention strategies may be more effective if they focus on males over the age of 35 and females over the age of 40.