CAJ | 학술논문

在太湖宜兴段藻源性湖泛高发区设立4个监测点，以湖泛发生的物质基础“藻类生物量”为研究对象，运用数据分析软件SPSS对监测点的藻类生物量、水质、气温等数据进行相关分析，建立了以藻密度为因变量的多元逐步回归模型。结合往年太湖藻源性湖泛发生时的气象条件等历史资料以及相关藻密度阈值的报道，构建了太湖宜兴段藻源性湖泛高发区监测预警模型系统，该模型能够基于监测点的实时水质数据和气象预报数据，对监控区域湖水在未来某时间段内发生湖泛风险的可能性进行分级预警。
재태호의흥단조원성호범고발구설립4개감측점，이호범발생적물질기출“조류생물량”위연구대상，운용수거분석연건SPSS대감측점적조류생물량、수질、기온등수거진행상관분석，건립료이조밀도위인변량적다원축보회귀모형。결합왕년태호조원성호범발생시적기상조건등역사자료이급상관조밀도역치적보도，구건료태호의흥단조원성호범고발구감측예경모형계통，해모형능구기우감측점적실시수질수거화기상예보수거，대감공구역호수재미래모시간단내발생호범풍험적가능성진행분급예경。
Feculent and anaerobic water aggregation ( FAWA) is a type of specific environmental disaster with characteristics of occur-ring abruptly,lasting in short duration,and causing serious consequences on the environment and ecosystems.Experiments choosing al-gal density as the investigated object were carried out to analyze the parameters using data analysis software SPSS,including the water quality,temperature,and algal density,in four monitoring sites of the Yixing part where FAWA happened historically.An early-warning model using the multiple regression theory was constructed based on the algal cell density together with weather conditions and related algal density threshold when FAWA happened in the past years.Based on the current weather data and real-time water quality parame-ters in the monitoring site,the model could be used to evaluate the risk grade of FAWA occurring in the monitoring region.