CAJ | 학술논문

优势证据标准通常被认为是0.5的绝对概率阈值，本文认为这种证据标准的绝对定性是错误的。文章并没有集中于绝对阈值，而是将优势证据标准重构为一种概率比，并阐明这样做是如何解决与证据概率理论相关的很多经典问题的。使用概率比去解决所谓的结合悖论，同时在贝叶斯视角下发展概率检验标准去进一步解释蓝色巴士问题或者其他与统计证据有关的难题。本文将证据的概率理论与最近倡导的溯因推理模型（最佳解释推理）相协调，修补了当前证据学界的争议裂痕。
우세증거표준통상피인위시0.5적절대개솔역치，본문인위저충증거표준적절대정성시착오적。문장병몰유집중우절대역치，이시장우세증거표준중구위일충개솔비，병천명저양주시여하해결여증거개솔이론상관적흔다경전문제적。사용개솔비거해결소위적결합패론，동시재패협사시각하발전개솔검험표준거진일보해석람색파사문제혹자기타여통계증거유관적난제。본문장증거적개솔이론여최근창도적소인추리모형（최가해석추리）상협조，수보료당전증거학계적쟁의렬흔。
The preponderance standard is conventionally described as an absolute probability threshold of 0.5. This Essay argues that this absolute characterization of the burden of proof is wrong. Rather than focusing on an absolute threshold, the Essay reconceptualizes the preponderance standard as a probability ratio and shows how doing so eliminates many of the classical problems associated with probabilistic theories of evidence. Using probability ratios eliminates the so-called Conjunction Paradox, and developing the ratio tests under a Bayesian perspective further explains the Blue Bus problem and other puzzles surrounding statistical evidence. By harmonizing probabilistic theories of proof with recent critiques advocating for abductive models (inference to the best explanation), the Essay bridges a contentious rift in current evidence scholarship.