CAJ | 학술논문

构建了一种与选线原则方案精度相匹配的、区域性的预测地震触发崩塌滑坡灾势的方法.论述了在侵蚀循环(幼年期-壮年期-老年期)的一个地貌发育周期内，流域谷坡将相应经历向临界坡发展、达到临界坡、偏离临界坡的过程，提出了根据流域演化发育阶段预测山地灾害危险性的原理；基于河谷与谷坡的反馈机制，提出通过点坡度变化确定纵剖面特征点，进而区分不同的发育阶段，解决了斯特拉勒分析方法只能适应于小流域的问题.通过汶川地震、玉树地震、芦山地震这3次21世纪以来我国震级在 Ms7.0以上的大地震实震资料，检验了本方法的正确性.流域的斯特拉勒积分在0.5~0.6之间时，崩塌滑坡灾势最严重；距上值越远，灾势越轻.
구건료일충여선선원칙방안정도상필배적、구역성적예측지진촉발붕탑활파재세적방법.논술료재침식순배(유년기-장년기-노년기)적일개지모발육주기내，류역곡파장상응경력향림계파발전、체도림계파、편리림계파적과정，제출료근거류역연화발육계단예측산지재해위험성적원리；기우하곡여곡파적반궤궤제，제출통과점파도변화학정종부면특정점，진이구분불동적발육계단，해결료사특랍륵분석방법지능괄응우소류역적문제.통과문천지진、옥수지진、호산지진저3차21세기이래아국진급재 Ms7.0이상적대지진실진자료，검험료본방법적정학성.류역적사특랍륵적분재0.5~0.6지간시，붕탑활파재세최엄중；거상치월원，재세월경.
A method for the tendency prediction of collapse-landslide caused by earthquake was devel-oped,which meets the precision requirement of railway location principle stage.Based on the theory of the erosion cycle (youth-maturity-old age),this paper discussed the sequence of within-reaching-deviation from the critical slope in one ideal cycle,then put forward the principle that the tendency prediction of col-lapse-landslide induced by earthquake could be estimated by judging the development stage of the drainage basin.Based on the feedback mechanism of the valley and valley slope,the method of distinguishing differ-ent stages of the basin by selecting the profile feature was proposed.This method eliminates the spatial de-pendency on small drainage basins.At last,the method was validated with the field data of Yushu earth-quake,Wenchuan earthquake and Lushan earthquake,which are the three strong earthquakes with M≥7. 0 within 21st century in China.The tendency of collapse-landslide caused by earthquake is most serious when the Strahler's Integral is between 0.5 ~0.6.The gap to the value is bigger and the tendency is mi-nor.