计算技术与自动化
計算技術與自動化
계산기술여자동화
Computing Technology and Automation
2015年
3期
78-82
,共5页
时间序列模型%贝叶斯理论%河流重金属污染%预测
時間序列模型%貝葉斯理論%河流重金屬汙染%預測
시간서렬모형%패협사이론%하류중금속오염%예측
the time series model%bayesian theories%heavy-metal contaminants in streams%forecasting
水环境是一个充满不确定性的复杂巨系统,传统水质模型很难体现重金属污染物在河流中迁移的随机性。本文选择 ARIMA 模型作为重金属预测模型,运用贝叶斯相关理论进行分析、参数估计和预测,从而不仅获得点预测结果,而且获得区间估计和概率预测结果。实例分析证实,基于贝叶斯方法的 ARI-MA 模型能够获得很好的点预测和区间表现。
水環境是一箇充滿不確定性的複雜巨繫統,傳統水質模型很難體現重金屬汙染物在河流中遷移的隨機性。本文選擇 ARIMA 模型作為重金屬預測模型,運用貝葉斯相關理論進行分析、參數估計和預測,從而不僅穫得點預測結果,而且穫得區間估計和概率預測結果。實例分析證實,基于貝葉斯方法的 ARI-MA 模型能夠穫得很好的點預測和區間錶現。
수배경시일개충만불학정성적복잡거계통,전통수질모형흔난체현중금속오염물재하류중천이적수궤성。본문선택 ARIMA 모형작위중금속예측모형,운용패협사상관이론진행분석、삼수고계화예측,종이불부획득점예측결과,이차획득구간고계화개솔예측결과。실례분석증실,기우패협사방법적 ARI-MA 모형능구획득흔호적점예측화구간표현。
Traditional stream water-quality models are hardly able to describe stochastic behavior of heavy-metal contam-inants in water,due to stream environment influenced by various uncertainties.Therefore,a classic time series model, namely autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)model,is used as a predict model for pollutant concentration of heavy-metal contaminants in streams.In addition,Bayesian theories are applied to analyze this model,estimate parameters of this model,and give point and interval prediction results.The empirical results indicate this model perform quite well.