CAJ | 학술논문

文章首先对开放经济技术溢出理论进行了推导, 在此基础上构建出技术溢出计量模型并利用我国1990-2010年的工业分行业数据, 对我国工业行业国内研发、进口和出口对全要素生产率的水平效应和垂直效应进行了分析. 对全要素生产率的估计使用半参数方法以避免内生问题, 对计量模型使用普通最小二乘法(OLS)和动态最小二乘法(DOLS)进行回归. 最后结果表明, 国内研发显著的促进了生产率提高; 进口的水平溢出为负, 而垂直溢出为正; 出口的水平溢出为正, 但垂直溢出为负, 且就绝对值来看, 出口的水平效应远大于进口的水平效应. 所以一方面要进一步加强对进口技术的消化吸收, 进一步促进进口的垂直效应; 另一方面也要改变目前劳动密集型的出口方式, 加大出口的技术含量, 转变出口垂直效应为负的现状.
문장수선대개방경제기술일출이론진행료추도, 재차기출상구건출기술일출계량모형병이용아국1990-2010년적공업분행업수거, 대아국공업행업국내연발、진구화출구대전요소생산솔적수평효응화수직효응진행료분석. 대전요소생산솔적고계사용반삼수방법이피면내생문제, 대계량모형사용보통최소이승법(OLS)화동태최소이승법(DOLS)진행회귀. 최후결과표명, 국내연발현저적촉진료생산솔제고; 진구적수평일출위부, 이수직일출위정; 출구적수평일출위정, 단수직일출위부, 차취절대치래간, 출구적수평효응원대우진구적수평효응. 소이일방면요진일보가강대진구기술적소화흡수, 진일보촉진진구적수직효응; 령일방면야요개변목전노동밀집형적출구방식, 가대출구적기술함량, 전변출구수직효응위부적현상.
This paper firstly derives the technological spillover theory of open economies and constructs a econometric model on the basis of the theory. Using the industrial data from 1990 to 2010 period of our country , the paper estimates the level and vertical effect of the domestic research, import and export on total factor productivity(TFP). The paper uses the semiparametric method to estimate the total factor productivity to avoid endogeneity problem and estimates the econometric model using ordinary least square(OLS) and dynamic ordinary least square(DOLS). The result shows that domestic research promotes the TFP growth significantly. The level effect brought by import is positive while the vertical effect brought by is negative. The level effect brought by export is positive while the vertical effect brought by it is negative. So it should strengthen our ability to absorb and use the importing knowledge on one hand and alter our labor intensive export mode on the other hand.