CAJ | 학술논문

为揭示我国通用航空产业演化的动态规律, 挖掘产业形成和可持续发展的阶段识别证据, 针对产业演化数据的多维和波动特性, 基于投影寻踪理论(PP)、Compertz模型和蚁群算法(ACO)构建通用航空产业演化的PP-Compertz-ACO模型. 然后, 以我国2004-2013年通用航空产业演化数据为例进行实证, 研究发现: PP-Compertz-ACO模型的拟合预测精度高于三阶段和非线性最小二乘Compertz模型, 更符合我国通用航空产业演化的实际状况; 我国通用航空产业演化以2010年为分界点, 先后经历了初创和成长两个阶段; 预测我国通用航空产业演化(以2013年为基期) 将经历近20年的成长期.
위게시아국통용항공산업연화적동태규률, 알굴산업형성화가지속발전적계단식별증거, 침대산업연화수거적다유화파동특성, 기우투영심종이론(PP)、Compertz모형화의군산법(ACO)구건통용항공산업연화적PP-Compertz-ACO모형. 연후, 이아국2004-2013년통용항공산업연화수거위례진행실증, 연구발현: PP-Compertz-ACO모형적의합예측정도고우삼계단화비선성최소이승Compertz모형, 경부합아국통용항공산업연화적실제상황; 아국통용항공산업연화이2010년위분계점, 선후경력료초창화성장량개계단; 예측아국통용항공산업연화(이2013년위기기) 장경력근20년적성장기.
In order to reveal the general aviation industry evolution dynamic rules, the pp-compertz-ACO model of general aviation industry evolution is constructed based on projection pursuit(PP). Compertz model and ant-colony optimization(ACO) is to mine phase identification evidence of industry formation and sustainable development in light of the Multidimensional and fluctuation characteristics of industry evolution data. Through the empirical research based on the general aviation industry evolution data from 2004 to 2013 in china, there are three conclustions found:firtly, the prediction accuracy according to the pp-compertz-ACO model is higher than the compertz model of the three stages and the nonlinear least square, as well as better in line with the actual situation of China's general aviation industry evolution; secondly, the cut-off point of China's general aviation industry evolution is the year of 2010, which has experienced two stages of start-up and growth in this year; thirdly, the general aviation industry evolution(the year of 2013 as the base time) can be forecasted in China-there will be nearly 20 years of growth period in china.