南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
2015年
5期
847-852
,共6页
暴雨%降水集中度(PCD)%降水集中期(PCP )%时空特征%淮河流域
暴雨%降水集中度(PCD)%降水集中期(PCP )%時空特徵%淮河流域
폭우%강수집중도(PCD)%강수집중기(PCP )%시공특정%회하류역
rainstorm%Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD)%Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP)%spatial and tempo-ral characteristics%Huaihe River Basin
基于1951年-2009年淮河流域44个气象站逐日降水资料,运用小波分析、Mann-Kendall 突变检验法、克里金插值等方法对研究区暴雨集中度(PCD)、集中期(PCP )、暴雨量及降水总量进行时空变化特征分析。研究表明：淮河流域近60年来暴雨 PCD 和 PCP 增减幅度不明显,但暴雨量和降水总量呈明显的增长趋势,增长速度分别为2.64 mm/10 a 和15.17 mm/10 a；变化周期上,暴雨集中度(PCD)主要呈现出5 a 和10 a 左右的震荡,暴雨集中期(PCP )呈现出明显的5 a 和15 a 左右的周期震荡,暴雨量和降水总量呈现出6~10 a 的变化周期；暴雨集中度(PCD)、集中期(PCP )、降水总量和暴雨量都存在明显的突变年份；暴雨集中度空间分布上具有明显的不均衡性,基本从西向东,从南向北集中度呈增大趋势,年降水量较多的区域,降水集中度相对偏高,同样地年暴雨量较大的区域降水暴雨集中度相对偏高；暴雨集中期主要集中在7月中下旬,并且总体上在年内呈现从西北向东南暴雨集中期逐步推后；暴雨量与暴雨频次的相关系数达0.96,即两者具有类似的时空变化特征。
基于1951年-2009年淮河流域44箇氣象站逐日降水資料,運用小波分析、Mann-Kendall 突變檢驗法、剋裏金插值等方法對研究區暴雨集中度(PCD)、集中期(PCP )、暴雨量及降水總量進行時空變化特徵分析。研究錶明：淮河流域近60年來暴雨 PCD 和 PCP 增減幅度不明顯,但暴雨量和降水總量呈明顯的增長趨勢,增長速度分彆為2.64 mm/10 a 和15.17 mm/10 a；變化週期上,暴雨集中度(PCD)主要呈現齣5 a 和10 a 左右的震盪,暴雨集中期(PCP )呈現齣明顯的5 a 和15 a 左右的週期震盪,暴雨量和降水總量呈現齣6~10 a 的變化週期；暴雨集中度(PCD)、集中期(PCP )、降水總量和暴雨量都存在明顯的突變年份；暴雨集中度空間分佈上具有明顯的不均衡性,基本從西嚮東,從南嚮北集中度呈增大趨勢,年降水量較多的區域,降水集中度相對偏高,同樣地年暴雨量較大的區域降水暴雨集中度相對偏高；暴雨集中期主要集中在7月中下旬,併且總體上在年內呈現從西北嚮東南暴雨集中期逐步推後；暴雨量與暴雨頻次的相關繫數達0.96,即兩者具有類似的時空變化特徵。
기우1951년-2009년회하류역44개기상참축일강수자료,운용소파분석、Mann-Kendall 돌변검험법、극리금삽치등방법대연구구폭우집중도(PCD)、집중기(PCP )、폭우량급강수총량진행시공변화특정분석。연구표명：회하류역근60년래폭우 PCD 화 PCP 증감폭도불명현,단폭우량화강수총량정명현적증장추세,증장속도분별위2.64 mm/10 a 화15.17 mm/10 a；변화주기상,폭우집중도(PCD)주요정현출5 a 화10 a 좌우적진탕,폭우집중기(PCP )정현출명현적5 a 화15 a 좌우적주기진탕,폭우량화강수총량정현출6~10 a 적변화주기；폭우집중도(PCD)、집중기(PCP )、강수총량화폭우량도존재명현적돌변년빈；폭우집중도공간분포상구유명현적불균형성,기본종서향동,종남향북집중도정증대추세,년강수량교다적구역,강수집중도상대편고,동양지년폭우량교대적구역강수폭우집중도상대편고；폭우집중기주요집중재7월중하순,병차총체상재년내정현종서북향동남폭우집중기축보추후；폭우량여폭우빈차적상관계수체0.96,즉량자구유유사적시공변화특정。
Based on the daily precipitation data at 44 stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1951 to 2009,we analyzed the spatial and temporal variation patterns of Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD)and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP)of rainstorm, heavy rainfall,and total precipitation in the study area using the methods such as wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test,,and kriging interpolation.The results showed that (1)the increasing trend of the rainstorm PCD and PCP is insignificant,but the amount of rainstorm and total precipitation show a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 2.64 mm/10 a and 15.17 mm/10 a,respectively;(2)the periodicity of the PCD is approximately 5 years and 10 years,the periodicity of PCP is approximately 5 years and 15 years,and the periodicity of rainstorm and total precipitation is approximately 6 to 10 years in recent 60 years;(3)there are obvious muta-tion years for the PCD ,PCP,rainstorm,and total precipitation;(4)the spatial distribution of rainstorm PCD is uneven in the river basin with the increasing trend from west to east and from south to north,and the PCD is higher in the area with heavier rainfall and higher total precipitation;(5)rainstorm PCP occurs mostly in the middle to late July,and it is pushed back from northeast to northwest within a year;and (6)the correlation coefficient between the rainstorm amount and rainstorm frequency is up to 0.96,so they have similarly spatial and temporal variations in the Huaihe River Basin.
