CAJ | 학술논문

为解决城市水资源供需矛盾，提高城市水资源的可持续承载能力和实现社会经济的可持续发展，利用系统动力学方法，建立了佳木斯市水资源承载力动态仿真模型，并结合区域资源利用和社会经济发展特点，设计了现状延续、治污开源、限采节流和综合协调4种提高水资源承载能力方案。方案仿真结果显示：现状延续、治污开源和限采节流三种方案在仿真年限内(2012年-2030年)未实现水资源供需平衡，水资源短缺问题仍将束缚佳木斯市工农业生产和社会经济发展；综合协调方案不仅在2015年保证了水资源供需动态平衡，而且实现了社会经济的快速发展，是提高佳木斯市水资源承载能力的最佳方案。
위해결성시수자원공수모순，제고성시수자원적가지속승재능력화실현사회경제적가지속발전，이용계통동역학방법，건립료가목사시수자원승재력동태방진모형，병결합구역자원이용화사회경제발전특점，설계료현상연속、치오개원、한채절류화종합협조4충제고수자원승재능력방안。방안방진결과현시：현상연속、치오개원화한채절류삼충방안재방진년한내(2012년-2030년)미실현수자원공수평형，수자원단결문제잉장속박가목사시공농업생산화사회경제발전；종합협조방안불부재2015년보증료수자원공수동태평형，이차실현료사회경제적쾌속발전，시제고가목사시수자원승재능력적최가방안。
In order to resolve the contradiction between urban water resources supply and demand,to enhance the sustainable car-rying capacity of urban water resources,and to realize the sustainable development of social economy,the system dynamics method was applied to build a dynamic simulation model of water resources carrying capacity in Jiamusi City.Based on the char-acteristics of regional resources utilization and socioeconomic development,four schemes were designed to enhance the water re-sources carrying capacity,including current situation continuation scheme,pollution control and increasing income scheme,limit-ing exploitation and decreasing expenditure scheme,and comprehensive coordination scheme.The simulation results showed that the balance between water resources supply and demand is not realized under the former three schemes from 2012 to 2030,and water resources shortage still restricts the industrial and agricultural production and socioeconomic development of Jiamusi City.However,the balance between water resources supply and demand in 201 5 and rapidly socioeconomic development are real-ized under the comprehensive coordination scheme.Thus,the comprehensive coordination scheme is the best scheme to enhance the water resources carrying capacity of Jiamusi City.