南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
南京林業大學學報（自然科學版）
남경임업대학학보（자연과학판）
Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Science Edition)
2015年
5期
93-98
,共6页
火险模拟%地理加权泊松模型%局部拟合%河南省
火險模擬%地理加權泊鬆模型%跼部擬閤%河南省
화험모의%지리가권박송모형%국부의합%하남성
fire danger modeling%Geographically Weighted Poisson Model ( GWPM)%local fit%Henan Province
火灾风险模拟是探究火灾风险机制和揭示影响火灾主要因素的重要途径. 使用可解释火灾及其影响因素间局部变异关系的地理加权泊松模型为建模工具,选取坡度、人类活动可达性、太阳辐射、地表温度、植被状态等火环境因素,对河南省2002—2012年的火灾风险进行空间模拟,并分别从可靠性和区分能力两方面对模型进行检验. 结果表明:①与广义泊松模型相比,地理加权泊松模型的模拟精度和模型性能均显著提高;②人类活动可达性对火灾的影响在河南省内未呈现显著空间变化,地形、太阳辐射、地表温度和植被状态对火灾影响在河南省内表现出显著空间变化,邻近居民区和远离主要道路的区域更易发生火灾;③火灾影响因素的估计系数图可用于防火管理.
火災風險模擬是探究火災風險機製和揭示影響火災主要因素的重要途徑. 使用可解釋火災及其影響因素間跼部變異關繫的地理加權泊鬆模型為建模工具,選取坡度、人類活動可達性、太暘輻射、地錶溫度、植被狀態等火環境因素,對河南省2002—2012年的火災風險進行空間模擬,併分彆從可靠性和區分能力兩方麵對模型進行檢驗. 結果錶明:①與廣義泊鬆模型相比,地理加權泊鬆模型的模擬精度和模型性能均顯著提高;②人類活動可達性對火災的影響在河南省內未呈現顯著空間變化,地形、太暘輻射、地錶溫度和植被狀態對火災影響在河南省內錶現齣顯著空間變化,鄰近居民區和遠離主要道路的區域更易髮生火災;③火災影響因素的估計繫數圖可用于防火管理.
화재풍험모의시탐구화재풍험궤제화게시영향화재주요인소적중요도경. 사용가해석화재급기영향인소간국부변이관계적지리가권박송모형위건모공구,선취파도、인류활동가체성、태양복사、지표온도、식피상태등화배경인소,대하남성2002—2012년적화재풍험진행공간모의,병분별종가고성화구분능력량방면대모형진행검험. 결과표명:①여엄의박송모형상비,지리가권박송모형적모의정도화모형성능균현저제고;②인류활동가체성대화재적영향재하남성내미정현현저공간변화,지형、태양복사、지표온도화식피상태대화재영향재하남성내표현출현저공간변화,린근거민구화원리주요도로적구역경역발생화재;③화재영향인소적고계계수도가용우방화관리.
Fire danger modeling is one of the most important ways to explore the mechanism of fire occurrence and to discover the main fire?influencing factors. Geographically Weighted Poisson Model ( GWPM) can account for local varia?tion of the relationships between fire hazards and fire?influencing factors was applied to model monthly fire frequency cell by cell for fire season of Henan province (i.e. September and October). Several fire?influencing factors involving slope, accessibility, solar radiation, land surface temperature and vegetation conditions were employed and potential multicol?linearity among the independent variables was excluded in modeling. The reliability and discrimination capacity of the de?veloped GWPM fire models were respectively evaluated by using the inner testing subset and the independent validation subset. The results indicate that:① the fitting accuracy and the model?s performance are greatly improved by GWPM compared to Generalized Poisson Model ( GPM) . ②Influences of factors present significant spatial variability, account?ing for slope, solar radiation, land surface temperature and vegetation conditions on fire hazards but the influences of factors accounting for accessibility of human activity on fire hazards exhibit insignificant spatial variability. In addition, those areas which were located far away from main roads and near villages are fire?prone zones. The estimated coefficients maps have important implications for fire prevention management.
