CAJ | 학술논문

渣油加氢装置中原料油增压泵输送的介质具有高温、高压和易燃的特点，泄漏后会直接导致着火事故。本文应用危险与可操作性分析（hazard and operability analysis，HAZOP）方法对原料油增压泵自身故障及故障后对整个装置造成的影响进行了定性风险分析得出，泄漏事故发生频率高且后果严重。为了定量计算原料油增压泵泄漏的风险，本文提出了原料油增压泵多参数耦合定量风险计算方法：辨识原料油增压泵所在节点内部因素间的耦合关系，建立贝叶斯网络，对多因素导致机械密封失效、填料密封失效、壳体破裂等事件的可能性概率进行定量计算；调研当地全年平均风速和太阳辐射等级统计结果，针对常见和极端的大气稳定度、风速条件影响，利用过程危害分析软件工具（process hazard analysis software tool，PHAST）模拟定量计算了不同泄漏孔直径情况下，高温原料油泄漏导致的喷射火后果严重程度；基于可能性概率和后果严重度计算结果，制定可能性和严重度等级判定标准，构建风险矩阵，针对不同原因导致的泄漏事故进行了风险评级。分析得到原因事件风险等级，用于确定风险预防措施和建立应急计划。
사유가경장치중원료유증압빙수송적개질구유고온、고압화역연적특점，설루후회직접도치착화사고。본문응용위험여가조작성분석（hazard and operability analysis，HAZOP）방법대원료유증압빙자신고장급고장후대정개장치조성적영향진행료정성풍험분석득출，설루사고발생빈솔고차후과엄중。위료정량계산원료유증압빙설루적풍험，본문제출료원료유증압빙다삼수우합정량풍험계산방법：변식원료유증압빙소재절점내부인소간적우합관계，건립패협사망락，대다인소도치궤계밀봉실효、전료밀봉실효、각체파렬등사건적가능성개솔진행정량계산；조연당지전년평균풍속화태양복사등급통계결과，침대상견화겁단적대기은정도、풍속조건영향，이용과정위해분석연건공구（process hazard analysis software tool，PHAST）모의정량계산료불동설루공직경정황하，고온원료유설루도치적분사화후과엄중정도；기우가능성개솔화후과엄중도계산결과，제정가능성화엄중도등급판정표준，구건풍험구진，침대불동원인도치적설루사고진행료풍험평급。분석득도원인사건풍험등급，용우학정풍험예방조시화건립응급계화。
Raw oil delivered by booster pumps in a residue hydrogenation unit is often under high-temperature and high-pressure,resulting in fire hazard when leaking. Hazard and Operability Analysis(HAZOP),a multi-parameter coupling quantitative risk calculation was applied to qualitatively analyze the failures of the booster pump and the failure impacts on the entire process. It was concluded that the leakage accidents could happen frequently resulting in serious consequence. This method identified the coupling relationship among the internal factors of the process node that contains the booster pump,established a Bayesian network model for the whole process,and calculated the failure probabilities of mechanical seal,packing seal and shell caused by multiple factors. According to the statistical results of local annual average wind speed and solar irradiance,common and extreme atmospheric stability and wind speed,the consequences severity of jet fire caused by leakage of high temperature raw oil under different leak diameters could be acquired by conducting process hazard analysis software tool(PHAST) simulation. Based on the probability and consequence severity calculation,risk assessment rules and risk matrix were established,and the risk levels of leakage accidents caused by different causes were evaluated. The risk levels of reason accidents can be used to risk prevention measures and proposing of emergency plans for accidents.