CAJ | 학술논문

结合SIR模型，建立系统动力学仿真模型对网络舆情事件传播过程进行系统分析，绘制因果回路图，建立存量流量图，利用Vensim PLE进行模拟仿真，探索网络舆情的传播规律、影响因素及保持传播系统稳定的平衡点。结果表明，接触速率、政府管控引导速率、易感疑惑人群数量等因素对网络舆情事件传播起到至关重要的作用，进而在此结论上为相关政府部门提出相应的对策建议。
결합SIR모형，건립계통동역학방진모형대망락여정사건전파과정진행계통분석，회제인과회로도，건립존량류량도，이용Vensim PLE진행모의방진，탐색망락여정적전파규률、영향인소급보지전파계통은정적평형점。결과표명，접촉속솔、정부관공인도속솔、역감의혹인군수량등인소대망락여정사건전파기도지관중요적작용，진이재차결론상위상관정부부문제출상응적대책건의。
In this paper, combing SIR model, we construct a system dynamic somulation model to analyze the spread of public opinion of internet. Then we drawe a causal loop diagram,establish flow diagram and use Vensim PLE to simulate the model. It explores the internet public opinion events evolutinal process,influence factors and stable equilibrium points keeping system stable. The results show that, con-tact rate, control and guide rate of the government, the number of susceptible people and so on, play a vitial role in the spread of public opinion of internet. Finally, acording above research, we put forward some prescriptions to control internet public opinion.