南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
2015年
5期
1003-1007
,共5页
模糊物元%水资源%脆弱性%欧式贴近度%熵权法%乌鲁木齐市%综合评价
模糊物元%水資源%脆弱性%歐式貼近度%熵權法%烏魯木齊市%綜閤評價
모호물원%수자원%취약성%구식첩근도%적권법%오로목제시%종합평개
fuzzy matter element%water resources%vulnerability%Euclid approach degree%entropy method%Urumqi%comprehensive evaluation
运用基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元理论，从效益水平、水资源量、生态环境三方面构建了乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性评价指标体系和等级标准，并利用模糊物元评价模型定量评价了乌鲁木齐市长系列水资源脆弱性的动态变化情况。通过与灰关联分析法、模糊综合评价结果的比较，证明模糊物元模型适用于乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性评价。评价结果显示，从2005年-2011年乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性等级有增长趋势，到规划年2015年和2020年水资源脆弱性等级将达到Ⅴ级状态，未来乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性增强不容忽视。
運用基于歐式貼近度的模糊物元理論，從效益水平、水資源量、生態環境三方麵構建瞭烏魯木齊市水資源脆弱性評價指標體繫和等級標準，併利用模糊物元評價模型定量評價瞭烏魯木齊市長繫列水資源脆弱性的動態變化情況。通過與灰關聯分析法、模糊綜閤評價結果的比較，證明模糊物元模型適用于烏魯木齊市水資源脆弱性評價。評價結果顯示，從2005年-2011年烏魯木齊市水資源脆弱性等級有增長趨勢，到規劃年2015年和2020年水資源脆弱性等級將達到Ⅴ級狀態，未來烏魯木齊市水資源脆弱性增彊不容忽視。
운용기우구식첩근도적모호물원이론，종효익수평、수자원량、생태배경삼방면구건료오로목제시수자원취약성평개지표체계화등급표준，병이용모호물원평개모형정량평개료오로목제시장계렬수자원취약성적동태변화정황。통과여회관련분석법、모호종합평개결과적비교，증명모호물원모형괄용우오로목제시수자원취약성평개。평개결과현시，종2005년-2011년오로목제시수자원취약성등급유증장추세，도규화년2015년화2020년수자원취약성등급장체도Ⅴ급상태，미래오로목제시수자원취약성증강불용홀시。
The water resources vulnerability evaluation index system and grade standard in Urumqi were developed using the fuzzy matter element theory based on Euclid approach degree from three aspects of benefit level,water resources quantity,and ecological environment,and the dynamic variation of long-series water resources vulnerability in Urumqi was evaluated quantita-tively using the fuzzy matter element evaluation model.The evaluation results were compared with those obtained from the grey correlation analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the fuzzy matter element model was proved to be suitable for the as-sessment of water resources vulnerability in Urumqi.The evaluation results showed that the vulnerability level of water re-sources in Urumqi increases from 2005 to 201 1,and will reach grade V in 201 5 and 2020.Therefore,water resources in Urumqi become more vulnerable in future.
