CAJ | 학술논문

目前预测水库塌岸的已有方法都有一定的适用范围，且预测结果相差悬殊，大都不能满足地质条件复杂多变的高山峡谷水库塌岸预测的需求。山区水库表土滑移型塌岸宽度的预测，就是找到塌岸所在滑坡的空间范围，尤其是滑移体的后缘边界，因此可基于 GIS的三维模型对 DEM 栅格数据进行处理，划分边坡单元，以边坡单元为研究对象，采用Monte Carlo模拟搜索方法确定三维最危险滑动面，进而确定塌岸有关参数、预测塌岸宽度等。经实例分析验证，该方法可用于预测山区水库表土滑移型塌岸的宽度、面积及深度。
목전예측수고탑안적이유방법도유일정적괄용범위，차예측결과상차현수，대도불능만족지질조건복잡다변적고산협곡수고탑안예측적수구。산구수고표토활이형탑안관도적예측，취시조도탑안소재활파적공간범위，우기시활이체적후연변계，인차가기우 GIS적삼유모형대 DEM 책격수거진행처리，화분변파단원，이변파단원위연구대상，채용Monte Carlo모의수색방법학정삼유최위험활동면，진이학정탑안유관삼수、예측탑안관도등。경실례분석험증，해방법가용우예측산구수고표토활이형탑안적관도、면적급심도。
At present,the existing means of reservoir bank collapse prediction has certain scope and the predicted results vary dramatically. Mostly,they can′t meet the demand of high mountain gorge with complicated geological conditions reservoir bank collapse prediction. The prediction of width of bank collapse is to find the space of the landslide,especially the rear of the sliding mass boundary. So the 3D model based on GIS used DEM grid data to divide the slope unit,taking the slope unit as the research object and using Monte Carlo simulation to determine the most dangerous 3D sliding surface. And then,bank collapse related parameters and bank collapse width can be determined. It has been verified by the example analysis and this method can be used to predict the reservoir bank′s width,area,depth and so on in the mountains.