CAJ | 학술논문

在地下水数值模拟中，实际水文地质条件的复杂性、概念模型和相关拟合数据的不确定性，往往造成数值模型和率定参数的随机性，从而降低模拟的精度。对参数进行敏感性分析，分清随机模型中参数的主次作用，可以有效提高模拟精度。以北京市朝阳区为研究区，选取与地下水流场相关性较大的渗透系数 k、给水度 u及贮水率 s三种参数作为灵敏度分析因子，采用正交试验法中的极差分析和方差分析两种方法分析参数对模拟结果的影响程度。结果显示：含水层的渗透系数灵敏度值最大，给水度灵敏度次之，贮水率灵敏度最小。因此，在进行数值模拟时应重点提高含水层渗透系数的精度，以确保数值模拟的准确性。
재지하수수치모의중，실제수문지질조건적복잡성、개념모형화상관의합수거적불학정성，왕왕조성수치모형화솔정삼수적수궤성，종이강저모의적정도。대삼수진행민감성분석，분청수궤모형중삼수적주차작용，가이유효제고모의정도。이북경시조양구위연구구，선취여지하수류장상관성교대적삼투계수 k、급수도 u급저수솔 s삼충삼수작위령민도분석인자，채용정교시험법중적겁차분석화방차분석량충방법분석삼수대모의결과적영향정도。결과현시：함수층적삼투계수령민도치최대，급수도령민도차지，저수솔령민도최소。인차，재진행수치모의시응중점제고함수층삼투계수적정도，이학보수치모의적준학성。
In the establishment process of groundwater numerical model,due to lack of hydrogeological data,it may lead to the uncertainty of hydrogeological conceptual model and the uncertainty of mathematical model. The analysis of parameters′ reliability is necessary. The orthogonal experiment method has high efficiency and can overcome the defects of other analysis of the parameters sensitivity methods. This paper took Chaoyang District of Beijing as the study area. Range analysis method and variance analysis method were used to analyze the parameters sensitivity. Three parameters of permeability coefficient,specific yield and water storage rate were chosen as sensitivity parameters which closely link to groundwater flow field. The two methods both show that the sensitivity value of permeability coefficient is the maximum parameter,and the water storage rate is the minimal parameter. In the model,the accuracy values of permeability coefficient should be acquired,so as to improve the precision of the model.