电力系统自动化
電力繫統自動化
전력계통자동화
Automation of Electric Power Systems
2015年
19期
142-148
,共7页
侯恺%曾沅%贾宏杰%卢恩%刘嘉宁%呼士召
侯愷%曾沅%賈宏傑%盧恩%劉嘉寧%呼士召
후개%증원%가굉걸%로은%류가저%호사소
调度操作%风险评估%分层方法%马尔可夫链%状态枚举法
調度操作%風險評估%分層方法%馬爾可伕鏈%狀態枚舉法
조도조작%풍험평고%분층방법%마이가부련%상태매거법
scheduling operation%risk assessment%hierarchical method%Markov chain%state enumeration method
提出了一种基于马尔可夫链调度操作流程风险评估及优选方法。分析了影响调度操作风险水平的两类主要因素(各步操作结果、设备故障)的特点,并利用分层方法将二者解耦处理:外层利用马尔可夫链模拟调度操作过程中系统拓扑的变化,并计算各环节对应系统拓扑的概率分布;内层利用状态枚举法计算各系统拓扑对应风险指标,并按外层所得概率分布加权求和,得到各操作环节及整体操作流程的风险指标,基于所得指标,可量化分析不同调度操作流程风险差异。该方法能够快速准确计算调度操作风险指标,为调度工作人员优选操作流程提供指标支持。测试系统及实际系统算例验证了所述方法的正确性、高效性和实用性。
提齣瞭一種基于馬爾可伕鏈調度操作流程風險評估及優選方法。分析瞭影響調度操作風險水平的兩類主要因素(各步操作結果、設備故障)的特點,併利用分層方法將二者解耦處理:外層利用馬爾可伕鏈模擬調度操作過程中繫統拓撲的變化,併計算各環節對應繫統拓撲的概率分佈;內層利用狀態枚舉法計算各繫統拓撲對應風險指標,併按外層所得概率分佈加權求和,得到各操作環節及整體操作流程的風險指標,基于所得指標,可量化分析不同調度操作流程風險差異。該方法能夠快速準確計算調度操作風險指標,為調度工作人員優選操作流程提供指標支持。測試繫統及實際繫統算例驗證瞭所述方法的正確性、高效性和實用性。
제출료일충기우마이가부련조도조작류정풍험평고급우선방법。분석료영향조도조작풍험수평적량류주요인소(각보조작결과、설비고장)적특점,병이용분층방법장이자해우처리:외층이용마이가부련모의조도조작과정중계통탁복적변화,병계산각배절대응계통탁복적개솔분포;내층이용상태매거법계산각계통탁복대응풍험지표,병안외층소득개솔분포가권구화,득도각조작배절급정체조작류정적풍험지표,기우소득지표,가양화분석불동조도조작류정풍험차이。해방법능구쾌속준학계산조도조작풍험지표,위조도공작인원우선조작류정제공지표지지。측시계통급실제계통산례험증료소술방법적정학성、고효성화실용성。
A Markov chain-based scheduling operations hierarchical risk assessment method is proposed.The characteristics of two major influencing factors of scheduling operations,which are operation result of each step and facility failures,are analyzed and decoupled with the hierarchical method.In the external layer,Markov chain is used to simulate the evaluation of system topologies during scheduling operations and achieve their probability distributions.In the internal layer,the state enumeration method is used to calculate risk indices of each system topology.By calculating the weighted sum of all system topologies according to the probability distribution of each operation step,final indices of scheduling operations will be obtained.The proposed approach is able to assess risk indices of scheduling operation efficiently and accurately,and provide index support for operators to optimize scheduling operations.Case studies based on a modified IEEE reliability test system and a practical system demonstrate the validity,effectiveness and utility value of the proposed approach.