CAJ | 학술논문

到目前为止，负荷预测工作基本上以负荷预测准确率为评价标准。而负荷准确率只反映了负荷预测的绝对偏差的大小，由于各地区负荷构成因素不同，导致负荷稳定性迥异。各地区负荷稳定性高低基本决定了地区负荷准确率高低，不利于反映负荷预测人员真实努力的程度。记及稳定度分量的负荷预测新评价标准引入了稳定度分量的概念，通过该地每个月稳定度分量的高低来核算每月负荷预测合格率，通过合格率与准确率双重指标对负荷预测工作进行评价。
도목전위지，부하예측공작기본상이부하예측준학솔위평개표준。이부하준학솔지반영료부하예측적절대편차적대소，유우각지구부하구성인소불동，도치부하은정성형이。각지구부하은정성고저기본결정료지구부하준학솔고저，불리우반영부하예측인원진실노력적정도。기급은정도분량적부하예측신평개표준인입료은정도분량적개념，통과해지매개월은정도분량적고저래핵산매월부하예측합격솔，통과합격솔여준학솔쌍중지표대부하예측공작진행평개。
So far, accuracy is basically taken as the only work of load forecast. However, the accuracy just reflects the absolute deviation of load forecast, which differentiates load stability due to different load struc-tures in different regions. The load stability degrees in all regions basically decide the load accuracy, which can not reflect effort of load forecast personnel. The stability degree component is introduced as a new concep-tion in load forecast evaluation standard that takes stability component into account. The new system checks monthly qualification rate of load forecast through stability degree component and evaluates load forecast by qualification rate and accuracy.