CAJ | 학술논문

以云南省为例，基于出口贸易与东道国不确定的市场需求，建立对外直接投资与出口贸易的动态模型进行分析与实证检验。结果表明：企业对外直接投资的沉淀成本及东道国的市场规模是影响企业对外直接投资最优行为路径选择的主要因素，对外直接投资与出口贸易的滞后项呈正相关关系。企业进行对外直接投资的前期阶段，对外直接投资对出口贸易的替代效应较为明显；而在成熟阶段，二者之间的替代关系逐渐变为互补关系。
이운남성위례，기우출구무역여동도국불학정적시장수구，건립대외직접투자여출구무역적동태모형진행분석여실증검험。결과표명：기업대외직접투자적침정성본급동도국적시장규모시영향기업대외직접투자최우행위로경선택적주요인소，대외직접투자여출구무역적체후항정정상관관계。기업진행대외직접투자적전기계단，대외직접투자대출구무역적체대효응교위명현；이재성숙계단，이자지간적체대관계축점변위호보관계。
Taking Yunnan Province as an example,based on the export trade and the uncertain market demand of host country,this pa-per establishes a dynamic mod for foreign direct investment and export trade.Analysis and empirical findings show that the sunk costs of foreign direct investment and the market size of host country are the main factors affecting the optimum behavior path selection and there is a positive correlation between foreign direct investment and the lag of export trade.At the early stage of enterprises’ foreign direct in-vestment,the substitution effect of export trade by foreign direct investment is more obvious;but at the mature stage,the relationship be-tween the two gradually becomes complementary relationship.