CAJ | 학술논문

利用2000―2014年中国海关进出口数据，采用位序变动指数和显性比较优势指数，对广东省与“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的出口贸易格局及商品结构的时空变化进行分析。研究表明：1）广东省对外出口贸易主要集中在“21世纪海上丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家（地区）如港澳台、东南亚、南亚和西亚/中东地区，对“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家（地区）如东欧、中亚、蒙俄地区的贸易比重低于全国平均水平；2）广东省与“一带一路”沿线国家（地区）对外出口贸易额保持持续上升的趋势，出口贸易格局发生较大变化，新兴市场国家占广东省进口贸易额比重不断提升，经济总量较小的发达国家（地区）或发展中国家的比重和位次均有所下降；3）广东省对外出口商品结构以装备制造产品、纺织服装、通用设备及仪器为主，受沿线贸易国（地区）需求结构的影响，不同地区的出口商品结构存在较大差异。
이용2000―2014년중국해관진출구수거，채용위서변동지수화현성비교우세지수，대광동성여“일대일로”연선국가화지구적출구무역격국급상품결구적시공변화진행분석。연구표명：1）광동성대외출구무역주요집중재“21세기해상사주지로경제대”연선국가（지구）여항오태、동남아、남아화서아/중동지구，대“사주지로경제대”연선국가（지구）여동구、중아、몽아지구적무역비중저우전국평균수평；2）광동성여“일대일로”연선국가（지구）대외출구무역액보지지속상승적추세，출구무역격국발생교대변화，신흥시장국가점광동성진구무역액비중불단제승，경제총량교소적발체국가（지구）혹발전중국가적비중화위차균유소하강；3）광동성대외출구상품결구이장비제조산품、방직복장、통용설비급의기위주，수연선무역국（지구）수구결구적영향，불동지구적출구상품결구존재교대차이。
Since“One Belt and One Road”became the national strategy, the economic and trade contacts between China and the countries along the line have been the focus of attentions. Export trade is an important measure to stimulate economic growth and promote national influence. Guangdong Province has the highest export trade value in China and its export trade with the countries and regions along “One Belt and One Road” has been increasing. In this paper, the spatial and temporal changes in the pattern of export trade between Guangdong and the countries and regions along“One Belt and One Road”were studied using data during 2000-2014 provided by China Customs. The results showed that the export trade of Guangdong concentrated on the countries and regions (e.g., HMT, Southeast Asia, South Asia and West Asia/Middle East) along the“21st Century Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt” with a lower-than-national-average weight in export trade with the countries and regions along the “Silk Road Economic Belt”, including Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Mongolia-Russia region; the export trade between Guangdong Province and the countries and regions along “One Belt and One Road” had been growing and the export trade pattern had changed a lot. The emerging economies had been taking up a larger proportion in the import trade of Guangdong Province while the developed countries (regions) and the developing countries with a small economic aggregate had been taking up a smaller proportion and stepping down in ranking;the major exported commodities of Guangdong were equipment manufacturing products, textiles and garments, and general equipment and instruments. Influenced by the demand structure of the countries (regions) along the line, the export commodity structures differed greatly between regions.