CAJ | 학술논문

通过对深圳特区、浦东新区和滨海新区等全国新区人口增长模式的研究，来推断贵安新区的人口增长模式，从而合理建立数学模型来预测贵安新区及其直管区在2015－2030年的人口数量，最后根据千人学位数和利用SPSS软件作时间序列回归分析来预测贵安新区直管区在各个时期的学龄数。面对新区教育基础薄弱的现状，应对新区教育发展的挑战，根据学龄人口的预测，应抓住新区教育发展机遇，从总体思路、体制机制、主要任务、重大工程等方面高起点超前谋划新区教育的改革与发展，这一工作对保持新区强有力的吸引力和办好教育为新区提供智力支持具有极其重要的意义。
통과대심수특구、포동신구화빈해신구등전국신구인구증장모식적연구，래추단귀안신구적인구증장모식，종이합리건립수학모형래예측귀안신구급기직관구재2015－2030년적인구수량，최후근거천인학위수화이용SPSS연건작시간서렬회귀분석래예측귀안신구직관구재각개시기적학령수。면대신구교육기출박약적현상，응대신구교육발전적도전，근거학령인구적예측，응조주신구교육발전궤우，종총체사로、체제궤제、주요임무、중대공정등방면고기점초전모화신구교육적개혁여발전，저일공작대보지신구강유력적흡인력화판호교육위신구제공지력지지구유겁기중요적의의。
Through research and study on the population growth mode of Shenzhen special eco‐nomic zone ,Pudong new area and Binhai new area ,the population grow th mode of Guian new area can be deduced .Then mathematical module is set up to forecast the population in Guian new area as well as its direct management area during 2015-2030 .Finally ,the number of school‐age population in Guian’s direct management area has been forecasted in different periods according to students’ de‐grees per thousand by using software SPSS .In the face of the current weak education foundation and the sharp challenge of the new area ,according to the school‐age population forecast ,new area should seize the new education development opportunity and plan the new education reform in advance and at a high starting point from many aspects of the overall thought ,system mechanism ,the main task and important engineering ,so as to remain strong appeal and provide intellectual support ,which is of great significance to the Guian new area .