CAJ | 학술논문

降雨、库水位变化是滑坡发生的主要外在诱发因素，降雨和库水位变化的滞后性和周期性是滑坡变形的重要作用特征。考虑降雨及库水位变化的滞后性和周期性对滑坡累积位移的影响，直接将降雨和库水位变化作为滑坡变形位移预测的影响变量，建立多元时序模型。以三峡库区秭归县白水河滑坡为例，首先用灰色模型提取趋势项位移，然后利用滞后的降雨量和滞后的库水位的变化量预测当期的周期项位移，最后将趋势项位移与周期项位移叠加，得到滑坡累积位移的预测值。结果显示，此方法能够很好地反映滑坡诱发因素对滑坡变形的动态影响，预测的平均绝对误差为1．97％，预测精度较高。
강우、고수위변화시활파발생적주요외재유발인소，강우화고수위변화적체후성화주기성시활파변형적중요작용특정。고필강우급고수위변화적체후성화주기성대활파루적위이적영향，직접장강우화고수위변화작위활파변형위이예측적영향변량，건립다원시서모형。이삼협고구자귀현백수하활파위례，수선용회색모형제취추세항위이，연후이용체후적강우량화체후적고수위적변화량예측당기적주기항위이，최후장추세항위이여주기항위이첩가，득도활파루적위이적예측치。결과현시，차방법능구흔호지반영활파유발인소대활파변형적동태영향，예측적평균절대오차위1．97％，예측정도교고。
Rainfall and reservoir water level variation are major external factors inducing landslide.Hysteresis and periodicity of rainfall and reservoir water level variation are important influence factors of landslide displacement.In this paper,a multivariate time series model with rainfall and reservoir water level variation as impact factors of dis-placement prediction was established.The effect of hysteresis and periodicity of rainfall and reservoir water level variation on the cumulative displacement of landslide was considered.Baishuihe landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area was taken as a case study.Firstly,gray model was employed to extract the trend term displacement;and then the lagged variations of rainfall and reservoir water level were used to predict the displacement of the periodic term;finally,the predicted value of accumulative displacement is obtained by superposing the displacements of the trend term and the periodic term.Results prove that the dynamic effects of inducing factors on the cumulative displace-ment of landslide could be well reflected by this model.It has high prediction accuracy,with the average absolute error 1.97%.