CAJ | 학술논문

我国经济不平衡的一个突出特点是高储蓄率。提升消费动力有助于我国经济在稳定和可持续的基础上转入新常态。本文以生命周期理论为研究基础，动态求解居民边际消费倾向，分城乡研究了居民收入的波动和人口年龄结构转变对其的影响特点。研究结论表明：城镇居民的消费行为具有较强的惯性，而农村居民消费水平则依据收入波动而呈现较高弹性。人口结构的变化对农村和城镇居民消费的影响也是不一样的，农村居民满足理论规律。在生育率不断下降情况下，农民倾向于降低当期消费而提高储蓄以应付养老。较完善的社保体制导致城镇居民养老储蓄动机较小；由于子女质量与数量的替代效应存在，城镇居民表现出较强的教育储蓄动机和馈赠储蓄动机。
아국경제불평형적일개돌출특점시고저축솔。제승소비동력유조우아국경제재은정화가지속적기출상전입신상태。본문이생명주기이론위연구기출，동태구해거민변제소비경향，분성향연구료거민수입적파동화인구년령결구전변대기적영향특점。연구결론표명：성진거민적소비행위구유교강적관성，이농촌거민소비수평칙의거수입파동이정현교고탄성。인구결구적변화대농촌화성진거민소비적영향야시불일양적，농촌거민만족이론규률。재생육솔불단하강정황하，농민경향우강저당기소비이제고저축이응부양로。교완선적사보체제도치성진거민양로저축동궤교소；유우자녀질량여수량적체대효응존재，성진거민표현출교강적교육저축동궤화궤증저축동궤。
A prominent feature of China’s economic imbalance is the high savings rate. Enhancing theconsumption power helps China’s economyshift to a new normal state on a stable and sustainable basis. Based on the theory of life cycle,the marginal propensity to consume is dynamically solved in this article. And this paper analyzes how it is affect-ed by the income fluctuations and changes in population age structure of the urban and rural areas respectively. The re-search result indicates that the consumption action of the urban residents has a stronger propensity,while the consump-tion level of rural residents has a higher elasticity as the income fluctuates. The impact of the changes in thepopulation age structure is different on the consumption of the rural and urban residents. Rural residents tend to reduce the current consumption to increase savings to cope with old age as the fertility ratio falls continuously. As the social security sys-tem for the urban residents is rather perfect,their motivation to save is small. Meanwhile, as there is a substitution ef-fect of the quantity by the quality of the children, the motivation of the urban residents shows stronger propensity for the education savings and gift savings.