CAJ | 학술논문

准确地评估潜在蒸散量的时空变化趋势对新疆水资源合理利用及气候变化下水文变化研究具有重要意义。采用Penman－Monteith公式以及55个气象站的气象资料计算了新疆1961－2013年潜在蒸散量，运用非参数检验以及G IS的空间分析功能，分析了新疆潜在蒸散量的时间、空间变化特征及变化原因。在此基础上，应用基于分形理论的R／S方法对新疆 E T0未来的变化趋势进行了预测研究。结果表明：新疆潜在蒸散量总体呈下降趋势，平均递减率为－10．1 m m／（10 a ）。年潜在蒸散量自1983年发生减少性突变，其空间变化特征为南高北低，东高西低，在东南－西北方向上递减，存在显著的地区差异。风速是影响 E T0的主要气象因素。未来一段时间 E T0仍然保持与过去相一致的变化趋势。
준학지평고잠재증산량적시공변화추세대신강수자원합리이용급기후변화하수문변화연구구유중요의의。채용Penman－Monteith공식이급55개기상참적기상자료계산료신강1961－2013년잠재증산량，운용비삼수검험이급G IS적공간분석공능，분석료신강잠재증산량적시간、공간변화특정급변화원인。재차기출상，응용기우분형이론적R／S방법대신강 E T0미래적변화추세진행료예측연구。결과표명：신강잠재증산량총체정하강추세，평균체감솔위－10．1 m m／（10 a ）。년잠재증산량자1983년발생감소성돌변，기공간변화특정위남고북저，동고서저，재동남－서북방향상체감，존재현저적지구차이。풍속시영향 E T0적주요기상인소。미래일단시간 E T0잉연보지여과거상일치적변화추세。
It is essential to accurately estimate the potential evapotranspiration (ET0 ) in arid and semiarid areas where water re‐sources are limited and explored excessively ,which would be greatly helpful for planning the irrigation water supply and understand‐ing the effects of climate change on hydrological processes .Based on the 1961-2013 daily meteorological data from 55 meteorological stations in Xinjiang ,and by using Penmen-Monteith equation ,the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0 ) was calculated ,the meth‐ods of Mann-Kendall test ,Mann-Whitney test and GIS technology were used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal changes in ET0 in Xinjiang during 1961-2013 .On these bases ,the future trend of the ET0 is estimated by the resealed range analysis meth‐od .Major results are as follows:the annual value of ET0 variations show a declining tendency -10 .1 mm/(10 a) during the past 53 years .An abrupt change of the annual ET0 happened in 1983 ,there was a marked geographical difference in ET0 ,which decreased from the Southeast to the Northwest ;wind speed has a great impact on the ET0 ,the decline tendency of wind speed appears to be a major cause for the negative trend of the ET0 in the areas .Within a definite period in the future ,the ET0 would keep the same change trend as the past .