CAJ | 학술논문

根据凝管事故进行统计和分析，确定了引起凝管的最直接原因是停输管道再启动失败和管道运行进入不稳定工作区两方面。并且依据建立故障树的基本原则，选择将“输油管道凝管失效”作为故障树的顶事件。总结了17个基本事件，使用下行法对输油管道凝管失效故障树进行分析，得出故障树的全部15个最小割集，利用最小割集原理对凝管失效故障树进行定性分析，结合改进的专家判断法确定了引起凝管失效的主要影响因素，并针对不同问题提出了相应的解决办法。发生的各基本事件的发生概率，利用最小割集计算故障树顶上事件发生概率，通过概率重要度分析法计算基本事件的概率重要度。
근거응관사고진행통계화분석，학정료인기응관적최직접원인시정수관도재계동실패화관도운행진입불은정공작구량방면。병차의거건립고장수적기본원칙，선택장“수유관도응관실효”작위고장수적정사건。총결료17개기본사건，사용하행법대수유관도응관실효고장수진행분석，득출고장수적전부15개최소할집，이용최소할집원리대응관실효고장수진행정성분석，결합개진적전가판단법학정료인기응관실효적주요영향인소，병침대불동문제제출료상응적해결판법。발생적각기본사건적발생개솔，이용최소할집계산고장수정상사건발생개솔，통과개솔중요도분석법계산기본사건적개솔중요도。
Based on the analysis and statistics results, the direct causes of congelation in pipline were determined, which were loss in restart of transmission pipeline and unstable performance in pipeline. With basic principle of building fault tree, failure induced from?the?congelation?in?pipeline?was?selected?as?the?top?in?fault?tree.?17?basic?events?were?selected.?The?fault?tree?of?congelation?in?pipeline was analyzed by using descending method, and all of 15 minimum cut sets of fault tree were determined. Then, making use of minimum set principle, the fault tree of congelation in pipeline was analyzed, and combined with the experiences of experts, the main?factors?causing?the?failure?of?congelation?were?determined.?With?respect?to?different?existed?problems,?relevant?solving?methods?were?finally?provided.