CAJ | 학술논문

甄别气候变化和人类活动对黑河中游流域径流的影响，对于维护该流域水安全具有重要意义。黑河中游流域降水和径流的变化趋势不完全一致，其中径流均呈减少趋势。应用累积距平曲线、Mann－Kendall法及Pettitt法分析流域降水和径流序列变点，径流突变均发生在20世纪80年代，确定以径流序列最早突变点1980年划分基准期和变化期。采用双累积曲线法和敏感性系数法对黑河中游流域的径流进行气候变化和人类活动影响的定量识别与评估。结果表明：黑河中游鸳鸯池流域、高崖正义峡流域和正义峡流域的水文水资源变化主要受人类活动影响，各流域人类活动影响贡献率均高达85％以上，最大可达96％。
견별기후변화화인류활동대흑하중유류역경류적영향，대우유호해류역수안전구유중요의의。흑하중유류역강수화경류적변화추세불완전일치，기중경류균정감소추세。응용루적거평곡선、Mann－Kendall법급Pettitt법분석류역강수화경류서렬변점，경류돌변균발생재20세기80년대，학정이경류서렬최조돌변점1980년화분기준기화변화기。채용쌍루적곡선법화민감성계수법대흑하중유류역적경류진행기후변화화인류활동영향적정량식별여평고。결과표명：흑하중유원앙지류역、고애정의협류역화정의협류역적수문수자원변화주요수인류활동영향，각류역인류활동영향공헌솔균고체85％이상，최대가체96％。
It is theoretically significant to discern the impacts of climate changes and human activities on streamflow variation for main‐taining water security of Heihe River Basin .By analysis ,the trends of precipitation and runoff of sub-basins in the midstream of Heihe River Basin were different and runoff tended to decline .Cumulative anomaly curve ,Mann-Kendall and Pettitt test were used to analyze the change points of precipitation and runoff in the sub-basins .All the change-points of runoff occurred in 1980s and the earliest change-point was determined by dividing the time series into baseline period and changed period .The double mass curve method and hydrological sensitivity-based method were applied to assess the impacts of climate changes and human activities on run‐off variation .The results show that human activities play a key role in runoff decrease in Yuanyangchi Basin ,Gaoyazhengyixia Basin and Zhengyixia Basin ,and their contribution accounts for over 85% while the largest contribution is as high as 96% .