CAJ | 학술논문

基于仁化、长坝2个研究站点及参照站点犁市1958－2009年的日径流资料，分别采用滑动平均法和M ann－Kendall检验法定性与定量分析各站点径流年际变化趋势，再联合R／S分析法计算出 Hurst指数评估趋势的持续性，最后用改进的Mann－Kendall法作突变点检验，以此来分析锦江水库对下游径流年际变化的影响。同时，分析研究区域的降水年际变化以印证水库对下游径流年际变化的影响。结果表明，建库后多年平均降水量增加，锦江下游多年平均径流量却减少；M ann－Kendall检验表明建库后锦江下游仁化段在汛期（4、5、6月）的月径流量年际间呈显著下降趋势，年径流总量虽成下降趋势，但Hurst指数显示这种趋势的持续性很弱；突变检验表明锦江下游年径流在2004－2008年期间发生突变。总体而言，锦江水库对锦江下游的影响程度要大于对干流浈江的影响。
기우인화、장패2개연구참점급삼조참점리시1958－2009년적일경류자료，분별채용활동평균법화M ann－Kendall검험법정성여정량분석각참점경류년제변화추세，재연합R／S분석법계산출 Hurst지수평고추세적지속성，최후용개진적Mann－Kendall법작돌변점검험，이차래분석금강수고대하유경류년제변화적영향。동시，분석연구구역적강수년제변화이인증수고대하유경류년제변화적영향。결과표명，건고후다년평균강수량증가，금강하유다년평균경류량각감소；M ann－Kendall검험표명건고후금강하유인화단재신기（4、5、6월）적월경류량년제간정현저하강추세，년경류총량수성하강추세，단Hurst지수현시저충추세적지속성흔약；돌변검험표명금강하유년경류재2004－2008년기간발생돌변。총체이언，금강수고대금강하유적영향정도요대우대간류정강적영향。
Based on the daily flow at Renhua ,Changba and Lishi stations covering 1958-2009 ,the moving average method and Mann-Kendall test are used in this paper to analyze the effect of Jinjiang reservoir on dow nstream runoff inter-annual variation ,the R/S analysis method is used to evaluate the persistence of runoff tendency ,and the modified Mann -Kendall is used to test a sudden change of runoff .Besides ,annual precipitation tendency of Jinjiang Basin also require analyzing .The results show that the average runoff between 1994 and 2009 is smaller than before ,although precipitation is more than before at Jinjiang Basin .Mann-Kendall test shows that downstream runoff appears to have a strong downward trend in April ,May and June at Jinjiang ;the downward trend of annual runoff is not obvious and the Hurst index shows that the trend has a very weak persistence .A sudden change test shows what happened between 2004 and 2008 .In general ,the effect of Jinjiang Reservoir on Jinjiang is greater than that on Zhenjiang .