CAJ | 학술논문

通过参考方法对我国制造业细分行业的碳排放水平进行测算,发现制造业的碳排放在1991~2012年可以分为三个排放阶段。基于碳排放的测算数据,对EKC于制造业行业的适用性进行了实证分析,结果发现无论采用“人均收入”指标还是采用“人均产值”指标,“倒U型”的EKC均不存在。进一步通过Stirpat模型来进行分析,不仅拒绝了“倒U型”的EKC,而且拒绝了碳排放在制造业行业内部可以分解为人口、技术和财富这三个因素的结论。研究认为,制造业EKC不存在是可以通过既有解释进行说明的,制造业的碳减排需要主动进行,而不能等待经济阶段的发展来自动解决。
통과삼고방법대아국제조업세분행업적탄배방수평진행측산,발현제조업적탄배방재1991~2012년가이분위삼개배방계단。기우탄배방적측산수거,대EKC우제조업행업적괄용성진행료실증분석,결과발현무론채용“인균수입”지표환시채용“인균산치”지표,“도U형”적EKC균불존재。진일보통과Stirpat모형래진행분석,불부거절료“도U형”적EKC,이차거절료탄배방재제조업행업내부가이분해위인구、기술화재부저삼개인소적결론。연구인위,제조업EKC불존재시가이통과기유해석진행설명적,제조업적탄감배수요주동진행,이불능등대경제계단적발전래자동해결。
This paper measured the level of the carbon emission of the manufacturing sector in China, by the reference meth-od of the energy’s detailed classification. It is founded that the carbon emission of the manufacturing sector can be divided in three phases from 1991 to 2012. Based on the data of carbon emission measurement, an analysis about the Environment Kuznets Curve( EKC) in the manufacturing sector of our country is given to talk about its application problem. Result shows that an “inverted-U” EKC does not exist with either the use of “average-income” or of “average-output value”, and then the Stirpat model is used to analyze the problem, Yet, not only is the“inverted-U” EKC refused, but also the stirpat mod-el. It is believed that the finding that the EKC does not exist in the manufacturing sector can be explained by some previous explanations, the carbon emission reduction in manufacturing sector should be on the way positively rather than waiting for the change of the economic phase.