环境科学导刊
環境科學導刊
배경과학도간
Environmental Science Survey
2015年
6期
91-96
,共6页
情景分析法%旅游规划%规划环评%应用%贵州省
情景分析法%旅遊規劃%規劃環評%應用%貴州省
정경분석법%여유규화%규화배평%응용%귀주성
Scenario Analysis method%tourism planning%planning environmental assessment%application%Guizhou Province
介绍了情景分析法的理论体系、特性表述、在规划环评中的应用。贵州省旅游发展规划模拟了4种情景，分别是规划开发、正常发展、高速增长、低速增长。综合比较4种选择方案，情景1为最佳选择。评价结果显示：规划在社会经济方面的正面影响大于对环境和无形文化遗产的负面影响，这里的环境影响主要指地表水水质和固体废物的处置。
介紹瞭情景分析法的理論體繫、特性錶述、在規劃環評中的應用。貴州省旅遊髮展規劃模擬瞭4種情景，分彆是規劃開髮、正常髮展、高速增長、低速增長。綜閤比較4種選擇方案，情景1為最佳選擇。評價結果顯示：規劃在社會經濟方麵的正麵影響大于對環境和無形文化遺產的負麵影響，這裏的環境影響主要指地錶水水質和固體廢物的處置。
개소료정경분석법적이론체계、특성표술、재규화배평중적응용。귀주성여유발전규화모의료4충정경，분별시규화개발、정상발전、고속증장、저속증장。종합비교4충선택방안，정경1위최가선택。평개결과현시：규화재사회경제방면적정면영향대우대배경화무형문화유산적부면영향，저리적배경영향주요지지표수수질화고체폐물적처치。
The application of scenario analysis method in planning impact assessment was introduced as well as its theory and characteristics.Four scenarios were set up for Guizhou province tourism development planning.They are planning exploitation,business as usual,high speed growth,and low speed growth.On the basis of comparing the results of different scenarios,scenario 1 seemed to be the best option,which has implied that planning demonstra-ted more obvious positive impacts on society and economy than the negative influences on environment and intangi-ble culture heritage.The environmental influence here referred to surface water quality and solid waste disposal.
