水资源保护
水資源保護
수자원보호
Water Resources Protection
2015年
6期
18-26
,共9页
孙才志%杨宇%陈相涛%韩琴
孫纔誌%楊宇%陳相濤%韓琴
손재지%양우%진상도%한금
水风险%指标体系%加权综合评价%空间自相关分析
水風險%指標體繫%加權綜閤評價%空間自相關分析
수풍험%지표체계%가권종합평개%공간자상관분석
water risk%indicator system%weighted comprehensive assessment%spatial self-correlation analysis
参考世界自然基金会（ WWF）与德国投资与开发有限公司（ DEG）提出的水风险评估方法，从短缺风险、污染风险、灾害风险、生态风险以及监管与声誉风险5个方面构建水风险评价体系，以中国31个省（市）为研究对象，采用加权综合评价方法对2000—2013年各省（市）的水风险进行评估，并利用Fuzzy ISODATA聚类模型对水风险评价结果进行分类。在此基础上运用空间自相关分析方法，对中国水风险指数的总体空间区域差异及时间演变趋势进行研究。结果表明：①中国水风险总体处于中低水平，且风险等级呈现出由高向低发展的良好状态。②各省（市）风险大小差异明显，南方地区水风险普遍低于北方地区。③风险子系统中短缺风险与污染风险对各省（市）水风险影响较大，但影响程度随时间减弱；生态风险小幅上升；灾害风险受自然条件影响表现出随机性特征。④水风险空间上存在显著的集聚现象，但空间集聚特征减弱，省际水风险关联度减小。
參攷世界自然基金會（ WWF）與德國投資與開髮有限公司（ DEG）提齣的水風險評估方法，從短缺風險、汙染風險、災害風險、生態風險以及鑑管與聲譽風險5箇方麵構建水風險評價體繫，以中國31箇省（市）為研究對象，採用加權綜閤評價方法對2000—2013年各省（市）的水風險進行評估，併利用Fuzzy ISODATA聚類模型對水風險評價結果進行分類。在此基礎上運用空間自相關分析方法，對中國水風險指數的總體空間區域差異及時間縯變趨勢進行研究。結果錶明：①中國水風險總體處于中低水平，且風險等級呈現齣由高嚮低髮展的良好狀態。②各省（市）風險大小差異明顯，南方地區水風險普遍低于北方地區。③風險子繫統中短缺風險與汙染風險對各省（市）水風險影響較大，但影響程度隨時間減弱；生態風險小幅上升；災害風險受自然條件影響錶現齣隨機性特徵。④水風險空間上存在顯著的集聚現象，但空間集聚特徵減弱，省際水風險關聯度減小。
삼고세계자연기금회（ WWF）여덕국투자여개발유한공사（ DEG）제출적수풍험평고방법，종단결풍험、오염풍험、재해풍험、생태풍험이급감관여성예풍험5개방면구건수풍험평개체계，이중국31개성（시）위연구대상，채용가권종합평개방법대2000—2013년각성（시）적수풍험진행평고，병이용Fuzzy ISODATA취류모형대수풍험평개결과진행분류。재차기출상운용공간자상관분석방법，대중국수풍험지수적총체공간구역차이급시간연변추세진행연구。결과표명：①중국수풍험총체처우중저수평，차풍험등급정현출유고향저발전적량호상태。②각성（시）풍험대소차이명현，남방지구수풍험보편저우북방지구。③풍험자계통중단결풍험여오염풍험대각성（시）수풍험영향교대，단영향정도수시간감약；생태풍험소폭상승；재해풍험수자연조건영향표현출수궤성특정。④수풍험공간상존재현저적집취현상，단공간집취특정감약，성제수풍험관련도감소。
Referring to the water risk assessment method presented by World Wide Fund for Nature ( WWF) and German Investment and Development Limited Liability Company ( DEG ) , the water risk assessment system was constructed, considering five aspects of water shortage risk, pollution risk, disaster risk, ecology risk, regulation risk and reputation risk.Taking 31 provinces and cities as the research objects, the water risk in each region during 2000-2013 was evaluated using weighted comprehensive assessment method.The results of water risk assessment were classified according to Fuzzy ISODATA classification model.Based on that, the overall spatial differences and temporal evolution trends of water risk indexes in China were studied using spatial self-correlation analysis method. The results show that:1.The overall water risk in China is at low-medium level and is developing from high to low. 2.The differences among regions are obvious.In general, water risks in southern regions are lower than those in northern China.3.The shortage and pollution risk have a strong impact on the comprehensive water risk in each region, while the impact degree is getting weaker over time and ecological risk is rising slightly.Disaster risks affected by natural conditions show randomness characteristic.4.Water risks show a significant agglomeration in space dimension, while its features are weakening.The correlation of water risks among regions is decreasing.
