CAJ | 학술논문

依据1951—2014年气象数据统计分析及野外调研资料，讨论了1951年以来陇东黄土山地带降水量、气温变化特征及趋势。结果表明，伴随全球气候变暖，平凉地区最近20年以来不论全年、冬半年或夏半年平均气温都呈明显上升趋势，自1997年以来平均气温比之前40年上升1．2℃。相比之下，除冬半年降雪量略呈减少趋势外，年总降水量并不存在显著增加或减少趋势，而更倾向于存在7a左右长周期变化或2a左右短周期波动。伴随气温逐年上升而降水量并不增加，退耕还林等人工干预措施不断加剧的总趋势，土壤水分或浅层黄土地下水资源量不断减少，进而影响林木生长、农业生产和生态环境有效恢复。指出黄土高原沟壑丘陵地带退耕还林工程实施过程中，根据地形地貌特征科学合理规划耕地、休耕地、林地、草地以及树（草）种选择、林木密度等是今后长期需要研究的课题。
의거1951—2014년기상수거통계분석급야외조연자료，토론료1951년이래롱동황토산지대강수량、기온변화특정급추세。결과표명，반수전구기후변난，평량지구최근20년이래불론전년、동반년혹하반년평균기온도정명현상승추세，자1997년이래평균기온비지전40년상승1．2℃。상비지하，제동반년강설량략정감소추세외，년총강수량병불존재현저증가혹감소추세，이경경향우존재7a좌우장주기변화혹2a좌우단주기파동。반수기온축년상승이강수량병불증가，퇴경환림등인공간예조시불단가극적총추세，토양수분혹천층황토지하수자원량불단감소，진이영향림목생장、농업생산화생태배경유효회복。지출황토고원구학구릉지대퇴경환림공정실시과정중，근거지형지모특정과학합리규화경지、휴경지、임지、초지이급수（초）충선택、림목밀도등시금후장기수요연구적과제。
Based on data from meteorological records during 1951 to 2014 and field observations, this paper statistically analyzed the variation of precipitation and temperature over past 60 years and prospected their discernible overall trends.With the global warming, the average temperature in annual, summer and winter half year has been going up in the recent 20 years.The average temperature has been risen of 1.2℃ since 1997, compared to 40 years ago.In contrast, besides the amount of precipitation in winter half year has the trend of decrease, the amount of annual total precipitation is inclined to show about 7-year of long periodic and 2-year of short periodic oscillations rather than a linear trend.Under the temperature rising while precipitation stable, and intensive of human activities, in particular, the development of large-scale of returning farmland to forests program, the soil moisture and groundwater will possibly continue decreasing.Finally, human living and ecological recovery will be affected by scarce of water resources in the hilly areas of the Loess Plateau.Thus, it is a long and key project to scientifically plan the farmland, fallow farmland, forest, grassland and trees ( grass) species selection, forest density, etc.according to topography and geomorphology during the returning farmland to forests program in gully and hilly region in loess plateau.