CAJ | 학술논문

文章运用传统协整技术、考虑结构突变的协整技术以及多重复合协整技术，对我国外汇储备的长期均衡问题进行深入研究，研究结果表明：运用多重复合协整技术分析中国的外汇储备长期均衡问题最为合理；对外贸易条件对我国外汇储备需求存在门限效应；在样本时间段内，我国实际外汇储备持有量确实存在长期偏高现象，偏高水平达到5.98％，如果考虑“热钱”效应，其偏离水平远高于5.98％。根据研究结论，文章给出了相应的政策建议。
문장운용전통협정기술、고필결구돌변적협정기술이급다중복합협정기술，대아국외회저비적장기균형문제진행심입연구，연구결과표명：운용다중복합협정기술분석중국적외회저비장기균형문제최위합리；대외무역조건대아국외회저비수구존재문한효응；재양본시간단내，아국실제외회저비지유량학실존재장기편고현상，편고수평체도5.98％，여과고필“열전”효응，기편리수평원고우5.98％。근거연구결론，문장급출료상응적정책건의。
In this paper,we study the long-term equilibrium of foreign reserves in China through applying the traditional co-integration theory,co-integration theory by considering structural breakups and the related multiple compound co-integration theory(MCCIT). The results indicate that:It is most appropriate to employ the MCCIT to analyze the long-term equilibrium of Chinese foreign reserves. Chinese terms of trade possess a threshold effect on the demand of foreign reserves. Within the time period the sample was collected,the foreign reserves are really overestimated and the overestimation is about 5.98%,the level deviated from the long-term equilibrium foreign reserves is greater than 5.98%if we consider the“hot money”effect. Lastly,based on this study,we provide some relevant policy recommendations.