CAJ | 학술논문

文章以2009-2013年27个省份的城投债发行额为研究样本，实证检验影响地方政府债务规模扩张的关键因素。研究发现，内部激励因素（信号传递激励）和外部压力因素（政府治理因素）均会对地方政府债务规模扩张产生影响，并且腐败程度越高、财政透明度越低，地方政府债务规模越大；财政分权程度越低、晋升激励越高以及经济发展水平越高，地方政府债务规模越大。因此，构建廉洁高效、公开透明的地方政府，发挥信号传递的激励作用，有助于维持债务规模的稳定性；另一方面，完善政府债务治理机制，通过优化官员年龄结构、保持地区经济可持续发展，有助于控制地方政府债务规模扩张和地方政府债务风险。
문장이2009-2013년27개성빈적성투채발행액위연구양본，실증검험영향지방정부채무규모확장적관건인소。연구발현，내부격려인소（신호전체격려）화외부압력인소（정부치리인소）균회대지방정부채무규모확장산생영향，병차부패정도월고、재정투명도월저，지방정부채무규모월대；재정분권정도월저、진승격려월고이급경제발전수평월고，지방정부채무규모월대。인차，구건렴길고효、공개투명적지방정부，발휘신호전체적격려작용，유조우유지채무규모적은정성；령일방면，완선정부채무치리궤제，통과우화관원년령결구、보지지구경제가지속발전，유조우공제지방정부채무규모확장화지방정부채무풍험。
The paper takes the circulation of quasi-municipal bond of 27 provincial-level administrative areas from 2009 to 2013 as the research object to test the factors influencing the expansion of local government debt size. The study shows that both internal motivators(signaling incentives)and external stress factors(government governance factors)have influences on the expansion of local government debt size. Moreover,the level of corruption is higher and the fiscal transparency is lower, the size of debt is larger;the level of fiscal decentralization is lower,the official promotion incentive is higher and the level of economic development is higher,the size of debt is also larger. Therefore,we need to build uncorrupted and efficient,open and transparent local governments,and play the incentive influence of signal transmission in order to maintain the stability of the debt size. On the other hand,we should improve the government debt management mechanism by optimizing the official age structure,maintaining the sustainable development of regional economy and in order to control the expansion of local gov?ernment debt size and the risk of local government debt.