江西科学
江西科學
강서과학
Jiangxi Science
2015年
5期
666-670
,共5页
地质灾害%监测预警%效益评估%江西
地質災害%鑑測預警%效益評估%江西
지질재해%감측예경%효익평고%강서
geological disaster%monitoring and warning%benefit assessment%Jiangxi
江西省是地质灾害易发多发地区,为摸清地质灾害气象监测预警服务能力现状、服务需求,评估气象监测预警服务在地质灾害防御中产生的效益,选取了4个近几年发生的地质灾害典型案例,综合运用德尔菲法和对比分析法,对气象服务情况进行调查与分析评估,结果表明:地质灾害气象监测预警服务效益贡献率为44. 03%,减少人员伤亡贡献率为67. 76%. 通过气象服务效益评估发现问题,总结服务经验,挖掘服务需求,为改进地质灾害气象监测预警服务业务、提高服务能力和水平提供参考依据.
江西省是地質災害易髮多髮地區,為摸清地質災害氣象鑑測預警服務能力現狀、服務需求,評估氣象鑑測預警服務在地質災害防禦中產生的效益,選取瞭4箇近幾年髮生的地質災害典型案例,綜閤運用德爾菲法和對比分析法,對氣象服務情況進行調查與分析評估,結果錶明:地質災害氣象鑑測預警服務效益貢獻率為44. 03%,減少人員傷亡貢獻率為67. 76%. 通過氣象服務效益評估髮現問題,總結服務經驗,挖掘服務需求,為改進地質災害氣象鑑測預警服務業務、提高服務能力和水平提供參攷依據.
강서성시지질재해역발다발지구,위모청지질재해기상감측예경복무능력현상、복무수구,평고기상감측예경복무재지질재해방어중산생적효익,선취료4개근궤년발생적지질재해전형안례,종합운용덕이비법화대비분석법,대기상복무정황진행조사여분석평고,결과표명:지질재해기상감측예경복무효익공헌솔위44. 03%,감소인원상망공헌솔위67. 76%. 통과기상복무효익평고발현문제,총결복무경험,알굴복무수구,위개진지질재해기상감측예경복무업무、제고복무능력화수평제공삼고의거.
Jiangxi Province is a region prone to geological disasters. In order to find out the present situation of the meteorological monitoring and warning service capabilities and the service demands to geological disasters, and assess the benefits of the meteorological monitoring and warning services produced in the geological disaster prevention,the meteorological services of 4 typical cases of geo-logical disasters in recent years are investigated and analyzed by integrated applying the Delphi method and comparative analysis. The results show:The meteorological monitoring and warning serv-ice benefits′contribution to the geological disaster prevention accounted for 44. 03%,and 67. 76% to reducing casualties. By means of the meteorological service benefit assessment,problems were found, service experiences summed up and service demands excavated. Thus it provides references for im-proving the services capability and level of monitoring and warning meteorological in geological disas-ters.
