产经评论
產經評論
산경평론
Industrial Economic Review
2015年
5期
92-100
,共9页
物流业%经济增长效应%核密度分布%区域差异%“一路一带”建设
物流業%經濟增長效應%覈密度分佈%區域差異%“一路一帶”建設
물류업%경제증장효응%핵밀도분포%구역차이%“일로일대”건설
logistics industry%economic growth effect%nuclear density distribution%regional difference%the Belt and Road strategy
基于1998-2013年中国31个省区面板数据，运用固定效应模型和分位数回归方法研究物流业对中国区域经济增长的影响，发现物流业对中国经济增长有显著正向影响，且这种影响存在明显的区域差异。物流业的经济增长效应对西部地区最强，中部次之，东部最弱。此外，不论是全国还是分地区样本均表明物流业对经济增长的边际贡献随着经济发展水平提高而增加。研究结论对于各地在区域层面和产业层面引领新常态以及“一路一带”建设具有重要的启示意义。
基于1998-2013年中國31箇省區麵闆數據，運用固定效應模型和分位數迴歸方法研究物流業對中國區域經濟增長的影響，髮現物流業對中國經濟增長有顯著正嚮影響，且這種影響存在明顯的區域差異。物流業的經濟增長效應對西部地區最彊，中部次之，東部最弱。此外，不論是全國還是分地區樣本均錶明物流業對經濟增長的邊際貢獻隨著經濟髮展水平提高而增加。研究結論對于各地在區域層麵和產業層麵引領新常態以及“一路一帶”建設具有重要的啟示意義。
기우1998-2013년중국31개성구면판수거，운용고정효응모형화분위수회귀방법연구물류업대중국구역경제증장적영향，발현물류업대중국경제증장유현저정향영향，차저충영향존재명현적구역차이。물류업적경제증장효응대서부지구최강，중부차지，동부최약。차외，불론시전국환시분지구양본균표명물류업대경제증장적변제공헌수착경제발전수평제고이증가。연구결론대우각지재구역층면화산업층면인령신상태이급“일로일대”건설구유중요적계시의의。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces during 1998-2013,this paper uses quantile regres-sion to examine the influence of logistics industry on economic growth. The results showed that,logistics in-dustry has significantly positive influence on regional economic growth,and the influence shows difference at different conditional distributions. The logistics industry in west area makes the largest contribution to econom-ic growth compared to the east and central areas. This paper revealed further that the higher the level of eco-nomic development, the greater the growth effect the logistics industry had on it. The conclusion helps China’s economy better adjust to the“new normal”phase both from industry level and from regional level,and has far-reaching significance in building the Belt and Road.
