黑龙江气象
黑龍江氣象
흑룡강기상
Heilongjiang Meteorology
2015年
3期
5-6
,共2页
TS评分%指导预报订正%逐步回归
TS評分%指導預報訂正%逐步迴歸
TS평분%지도예보정정%축보회귀
TS rates%revised guidance forecast%Stepwise regression
对中央气象台2014年1-9月下发的精细化温度指导预报产品,各市(地)上传的县级以上城市24 h晴雨预报、高温、低温TS评分相对中央气象台指导预报订正技巧进行了检验分析,结果发现:总体上最高温度预报好于最低温度预报,中部偏西北地区好于其他部地区。预报最大误差出现在2-3月份的温度转折期间。预报质量最好的月份为7月。经过简单订正后,此精细预报可以作为哈尔滨市温度预报的主要参考依据。
對中央氣象檯2014年1-9月下髮的精細化溫度指導預報產品,各市(地)上傳的縣級以上城市24 h晴雨預報、高溫、低溫TS評分相對中央氣象檯指導預報訂正技巧進行瞭檢驗分析,結果髮現:總體上最高溫度預報好于最低溫度預報,中部偏西北地區好于其他部地區。預報最大誤差齣現在2-3月份的溫度轉摺期間。預報質量最好的月份為7月。經過簡單訂正後,此精細預報可以作為哈爾濱市溫度預報的主要參攷依據。
대중앙기상태2014년1-9월하발적정세화온도지도예보산품,각시(지)상전적현급이상성시24 h청우예보、고온、저온TS평분상대중앙기상태지도예보정정기교진행료검험분석,결과발현:총체상최고온도예보호우최저온도예보,중부편서북지구호우기타부지구。예보최대오차출현재2-3월빈적온도전절기간。예보질량최호적월빈위7월。경과간단정정후,차정세예보가이작위합이빈시온도예보적주요삼고의거。
Analyzed the weather forecast under the guidance of Central Meteorological Station,the forecast veracity of precipitation, the lowest temperature, and the highest temperature of each station in Harbin during January to September in 2014. It shows that, the forecast of the highest temperature is better than the lowest temperature, on the whole, Central northwest region better than other parts of the region, ,the largest forecast error appears in the transition temperature in February and March. Forecast quality is the best in July. After a simple revised, This forecasting products can be used as a main guide reference in Harbin.