CAJ | 학술논문

基于牡丹江市宁安观测站1966-2014年的逐日平均气温、逐日最高气温、逐日最低气温和逐日降水资料，利用趋势分析、M-K 突变分析和标准化降水指数（SPI）对宁安市的温度和降水的气候变化特征进行统计分析。结果表明：宁安市的年平均气温呈显著上升趋势，其气候倾向率为0.31℃/10 a；宁安市的平均气温在20世纪80年代的后期发生突变，1989年后宁安市平均气温上升趋势显著。在20世纪80年代后期最高气温发生突变，1996年后最高气温的上升趋势显著。最低气温在20世纪80年代前期发生突变，1983年后最低气温上升趋势明显。宁安地区的年降水量最多的年份是1970年，为1220.5 mm。1979年最少，仅有317.0 mm。宁安地区四季都有可能发生旱涝灾害，而雨涝灾害以夏季居多，干旱在秋冬季节更易发生。
기우모단강시저안관측참1966-2014년적축일평균기온、축일최고기온、축일최저기온화축일강수자료，이용추세분석、M-K 돌변분석화표준화강수지수（SPI）대저안시적온도화강수적기후변화특정진행통계분석。결과표명：저안시적년평균기온정현저상승추세，기기후경향솔위0.31℃/10 a；저안시적평균기온재20세기80년대적후기발생돌변，1989년후저안시평균기온상승추세현저。재20세기80년대후기최고기온발생돌변，1996년후최고기온적상승추세현저。최저기온재20세기80년대전기발생돌변，1983년후최저기온상승추세명현。저안지구적년강수량최다적년빈시1970년，위1220.5 mm。1979년최소，부유317.0 mm。저안지구사계도유가능발생한로재해，이우로재해이하계거다，간한재추동계절경역발생。
Based on Ning’an observation station data of daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation from 1966 to 2014, the climate change characteristics of tem-perature and precipitation were analysed with trend analysis, M-K mutation analysis and standard precipitation index (SPI).The results show that: the annual average temperature showed a significant upward trend in Ning ’an, the rate is 0.31 ℃/10 a; the average temperature changed suddenly in the late 1980s, and rised significantly af-ter1989. The maximum temperature changed suddenly in the late 1980s, and rised significantly after 1996. The minimum temperature changed suddenly in the early 1980s, and rised significantly after 1983. The Most precipi-tation occurred in 1970 (1220.5mm), and the least is 317 mm in 1979. Drought and flood disasters may occur throughout the year in Ning’an. Flooding disaster is more susceptible in summer, and drought is more susceptible in autumn and winter.