山东农业科学
山東農業科學
산동농업과학
Shandong Agricultural Sciences
2015年
10期
88-91
,共4页
茶树%越冬期%冻害%气象因素%Logistic 回归分析
茶樹%越鼕期%凍害%氣象因素%Logistic 迴歸分析
다수%월동기%동해%기상인소%Logistic 회귀분석
Tea tree%Overwintering period%Freezing injury%Meteorological factor%Logistic regression analysis
从山东日照、青岛、临沂三个主茶区45年的气象资料中，选择可能导致茶树越冬期大冻害形成的31个气象因子作为自变量，以越冬期大冻害发生有无作为因变量，进行单因素 Logistic 回归分析，从中选出9个有统计学意义的气象因子进行多因素 Logistic 回归分析，建立茶树越冬期大冻害发生的 Logistic 回归模型，并对模型进行评价。结果显示，1月平均气温、上年7月平均气温、上年11月降水量、上年11月平均气温、2月空气相对湿度五个气象因子决定了茶树越冬期大冻害的发生，其中1月平均气温是主要因子。
從山東日照、青島、臨沂三箇主茶區45年的氣象資料中，選擇可能導緻茶樹越鼕期大凍害形成的31箇氣象因子作為自變量，以越鼕期大凍害髮生有無作為因變量，進行單因素 Logistic 迴歸分析，從中選齣9箇有統計學意義的氣象因子進行多因素 Logistic 迴歸分析，建立茶樹越鼕期大凍害髮生的 Logistic 迴歸模型，併對模型進行評價。結果顯示，1月平均氣溫、上年7月平均氣溫、上年11月降水量、上年11月平均氣溫、2月空氣相對濕度五箇氣象因子決定瞭茶樹越鼕期大凍害的髮生，其中1月平均氣溫是主要因子。
종산동일조、청도、림기삼개주다구45년적기상자료중，선택가능도치다수월동기대동해형성적31개기상인자작위자변량，이월동기대동해발생유무작위인변량，진행단인소 Logistic 회귀분석，종중선출9개유통계학의의적기상인자진행다인소 Logistic 회귀분석，건립다수월동기대동해발생적 Logistic 회귀모형，병대모형진행평개。결과현시，1월평균기온、상년7월평균기온、상년11월강수량、상년11월평균기온、2월공기상대습도오개기상인자결정료다수월동기대동해적발생，기중1월평균기온시주요인자。
Thirty -one meteorological factors were chosed as dependent variable from 45 years of meteor-ological data in 3 major tea producing areas of Qingdao,Rizhao and Linyi in Shandong Provingce.Occurrence or not of the freezing injury during overwintering was chosed as independent variable.The single -factor logis-tic regression analysis was conducted,and 9 meteorological factors with statistical significance were chosed for multivariate logistic regression analysis.Then the logistic model for the heavy freezing injury occurrence of o-verwintering tea trees was established and evaluated.The results showed that the average air temperature in January,average air temperature in July of last year,rainfall in November of last year,average air temperature in November of last year,relative air humidity in February were the main determinants that caused the heavy freezing injury to the overwintering tea tree.
