CAJ | 학술논문

以2002-2014年农产品集贸市场价格为样本数据，利用 Eviews 8.0软件，建立了基于时间序列分析的 AR-MA 模型，对大白菜、黄瓜和番茄的价格进行了分析预测。结果表明，我国蔬菜价格未来2 a 将呈上涨趋势，且具有季节性波动的特征，其中季节因素是影响蔬菜价格波动的最主要因素。
이2002-2014년농산품집무시장개격위양본수거，이용 Eviews 8.0연건，건립료기우시간서렬분석적 AR-MA 모형，대대백채、황과화번가적개격진행료분석예측。결과표명，아국소채개격미래2 a 장정상창추세，차구유계절성파동적특정，기중계절인소시영향소채개격파동적최주요인소。
This paper set up the ARMA model which based on time series, through searching the prices of agricultural market from 2002 to 2014 as sample datas with Eviews8.0 software, so as to analysis and forecast the prices of Chinese cabbage, cucumber and tomato. The results showed that vegetable prices would show a rising trend over the next two years with seasonal fluctuation, among them, the seasonal factor was the main factor to influence the price fluctuation of vegeta-bles.