CAJ | 학술논문

人口变化对社会发展有着直接的影响。人口增长率是研究人口增长的重要指标之一，人口增长的预测对人口政策的制定有着非常重要的作用。本文在有关人口的理论知识基础上，根据中国1971年-2014年人口数据，基于最小二乘法的改进的Logistic模型，分别建立模型来预测中国人口的增长趋势，并将预测的函数曲线与真实数据进行比较，得到较好的结果。利用曲线拟合的理论，采用MATLAB软件得到阻滞函数，再用Logistic模型来预测中国人口。结合我国人口低出生率、人口老龄化等问题，国家调整决定开放二胎政策，以期将我国人口调整为更加合理的发展方向。
인구변화대사회발전유착직접적영향。인구증장솔시연구인구증장적중요지표지일，인구증장적예측대인구정책적제정유착비상중요적작용。본문재유관인구적이론지식기출상，근거중국1971년-2014년인구수거，기우최소이승법적개진적Logistic모형，분별건립모형래예측중국인구적증장추세，병장예측적함수곡선여진실수거진행비교，득도교호적결과。이용곡선의합적이론，채용MATLAB연건득도조체함수，재용Logistic모형래예측중국인구。결합아국인구저출생솔、인구노령화등문제，국가조정결정개방이태정책，이기장아국인구조정위경가합리적발전방향。
[Abstract]Population change of future social development has a direct impact. The population growth rate is an important indicator of research and population growth, population growth has a very important role in the formulation of population policies. In this paper, based on the theoretical knowledge of the relevant population, according to the 1971 to 2014 population data, Chinese population Logistic model based on the theory of differential equations, respectively model to predict the growth trend of China's population. And predictable function curve and real data to get better results. Using the theory of curve fitting using the MATLAB software block function, and then the Logistic model predicted that China's population. Combined with the problem of the low birth rate and aging population,China decide to adjust the policy of opening a second child to make our country become better.